A Small Economic Model for Argentina
- Pedro Elosegui(Central Bank of Argentina)Guillermo Escudé() (Central Bank of Argentina)Lorena Garegnani() (Central Bank of Argentina)Juan Martín Sotes Paladino(Central Bank of Argentina)
AbstractThe uncertainty around monetary policy decision-making requires central banks to make extensive use of macroeconomic models both to analyze the current economic situation and to forecast the evolution of the main economic variables. The Small Economic Model (SEM) for Argentina describes in a stylized manner the macroeconomic dynamic of a small and open economy. This document describes the SEM’s structure and its two versions: a first one that includes the model’s core equations, and a second version that incorporates the simultaneous intervention in the money and foreign exchange markets by the central bank. The model’s main characteristics and limitations, the techniques employed to estimate its parameters and impulse-response functions for both models are presented. Finally, the future research agenda aimed to strengthen the analysis, simulation and forecasting tools for monetary policy purposes is discussed.
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References listed on IDEAS
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
- Horacio Aguirre & Tamara Burdisso & Federico Grillo, 2006. "Towards an Estimation of Money Demand with Forecasting Purposes: Argentina, 1993-2005," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(45), pages 7-44, October.
- Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-984, November.
- Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850, June.
More about this item
KeywordsArgentina; forecasting; general equilibrium; monetary policy; New Keynesian models;
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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