Impact of decentralisation and war on land cover in the Zhytomyr Region of Ukraine

This study aimed to examine land cover transformations in the Zhytomyr Region of Ukraine in response to decentralisation and war. It focused on assessing how shifts in local governance and the full-scale invasion have influenced land use dynamics, particularly changes in agricultural expansion, reductions in natural land cover types, and fluctuations in forested areas and water bodies. The study analysed land use patterns from 2016 to 2023 using Google Earth Engine’s Dynamic World V1 data, combining geospatial data with qualitative semi-structured interviews. The results showed that the decentralisation process launched in 2014 has strengthened local self government and empowered communities to manage land resources. This period was characterised by the expansion of agricultural land and the reduction of natural land cover types, such as grasslands and scrublands. By contrast, the full-scale invasion that began in 2022 resulted in a shift in land use priorities due to labour shortages, rising resource costs, and limited access to markets, which led to shrinking agricultural land and partial restoration of natural ecosystems. Particularly significant fluctuations are noted in forested areas and water bodies because of energy demands and restrictions on activities in conflict zones. The findings underscored the need for adaptive land resource management in the context of socio-economic and political challenges, as well as the importance of land cover monitoring for regional planning and the sustainable use of natural resources. By analysing geospatial data from Google Earth Engine’s Dynamic World V1 and qualitative semi-structured interviews, the study identified key trends from 2016 to 2023, evaluates the socio-economic and political drivers behind these changes, and highlights the challenges of adaptive land resource management in the face of instability. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the implications of land cover changes for regional planning and sustainable land use strategies.