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Long-term agricultural land-cover change and potential for cropland expansion in the former Virgin Lands area of Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • Kraemer, Roland
  • Prishchepov, Alexander V
  • Müller, Daniel
  • Kuemmerle, Tobias
  • Radeloff, Volker C
  • Dara, Andrey
  • Terekhov, Alexey
  • Frühauf, Manfred

Abstract

During the Soviet Virgin Lands Campaign, approximately 23 million hectares (Mha) of Eurasian steppe grassland were converted into cropland in Northern Kazakhstan from 1954 to 1963. As a result Kazakhstan became an important breadbasket of the former Soviet Union. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 triggered widespread agricultural abandonment, and much cropland reverted to grasslands. Our goal in this study was to reconstruct and analyze agricultural land-cover change since the eve of the Virgin Lands Campaign, from 1953 to 2010 in Kostanay Province, a region that is representative of Northern Kazakhstan. Further, we assessed the potential of currently idle cropland for re-cultivation. We reconstructed the cropland extent before and after the Virgin Lands Campaign using archival maps, and we mapped the agricultural land cover in the late Soviet and post-Soviet period using multi-seasonal Landsat TM/ETM+ images from circa 1990, 2000 and 2010. Cropland extent peaked at approximately 3.1 Mha in our study area in 1990, 38% of which had been converted from grasslands from 1954 to 1961. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, 45% of the Soviet cropland was abandoned and had reverted to grassland by 2000. After 2000, cropland contraction and re-cultivation were balanced. Using spatial logistic regressions we found that cropland expansion during the Virgin Lands Campaign was significantly associated with favorable agro-environmental conditions. In contrast, cropland expansion after the Campaign until 1990, as well as cropland contraction after 1990, occurred mainly in areas that were less favorable for agriculture. Cropland re-cultivation after 2000 was occurring on lands with relatively favorable agro-environmental conditions in comparison to remaining idle croplands, albeit with much lower agro-environmental endowment compared to stable croplands from 1990 to 2010. In sum, we found that cropland production potentials of the currently uncultivated areas are much lower than commonly believed, and further cropland expansion is only possible at the expense of marginal lands. Our results suggest if increasing production is a goal, improving crop yields in currently cultivated lands should be a focus, whereas extensive livestock grazing as well as the conservation of non-provisioning ecosystem services and biodiversity should be priority on more marginal lands.

Suggested Citation

  • Kraemer, Roland & Prishchepov, Alexander V & Müller, Daniel & Kuemmerle, Tobias & Radeloff, Volker C & Dara, Andrey & Terekhov, Alexey & Frühauf, Manfred, 2015. "Long-term agricultural land-cover change and potential for cropland expansion in the former Virgin Lands area of Kazakhstan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 10(5), pages 1-17.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:177223
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054012
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wei Wei & Yuanjun Zhu & Hao Li & Kebin Zhang & Baitian Wang & Xiaohui Yang & Zhongjie Shi, 2018. "Spatio-Temporal Reorganization of Cropland Development in Central Asia during the Post-Soviet Era: A Sustainable Implication in Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    2. Zita Izakovičová & Peter Mederly & František Petrovič, 2017. "Long-Term Land Use Changes Driven by Urbanisation and Their Environmental Effects (Example of Trnava City, Slovakia)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-28, September.
    3. Baumann, Matthias & Kamp, Johannes & Pötzschner, Florian & Bleyhl, Benjamin & Dara, Andrey & Hankerson, Brett & Prishchepov, Alexander V. & Schierhorn, Florian & Müller, Daniel & Hölzel, Norbert & Krä, 2020. "Declining human pressure and opportunities for rewilding in the steppes of Eurasia," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26(9), pages 1058-1070.
    4. Chul-Hee Lim & Yuyoung Choi & Moonil Kim & Seong Woo Jeon & Woo-Kyun Lee, 2017. "Impact of Deforestation on Agro-Environmental Variables in Cropland, North Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-19, August.
    5. Yanwen Wang & Song Hong & Yifei Wang & Xi Gong & Chao He & Zhendong Lu & F. Benjamin Zhan, 2019. "What is the difference in global research on Central Asia before and after the collapse of the USSR: a bibliometric analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(2), pages 909-930, May.
    6. Kaifang Shi & Yun Chen & Bailang Yu & Tingbao Xu & Linyi Li & Chang Huang & Rui Liu & Zuoqi Chen & Jianping Wu, 2016. "Urban Expansion and Agricultural Land Loss in China: A Multiscale Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Robert Pazúr & Juraj Lieskovský & Matthias Bürgi & Daniel Müller & Tibor Lieskovský & Zhen Zhang & Alexander V. Prishchepov, 2020. "Abandonment and Recultivation of Agricultural Lands in Slovakia—Patterns and Determinants from the Past to the Future," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-22, September.
    8. Onggarbek Alipbeki & Chaimgul Alipbekova & Arnold Sterenharz & Zhanat Toleubekova & Saule Makenova & Meirzhan Aliyev & Nursultan Mineyev, 2020. "Analysis of Land-Use Change in Shortandy District in Terms of Sustainable Development," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-16, May.
    9. Affek, Andrzej N. & Jabs-Sobocińska, Zofia & Wolski, Jacek & Radeloff, Volker C., 2023. "Pockets of persistence of agricultural land use during the socioeconomic shock of forced post-WWII displacements in the Carpathians," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Onggarbek Alipbeki & Chaimgul Alipbekova & Arnold Sterenharz & Zhanat Toleubekova & Meirzhan Aliyev & Nursultan Mineyev & Kaiyrbek Amangaliyev, 2020. "A Spatiotemporal Assessment of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Peri-Urban Areas: A Case Study of Arshaly District, Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, February.
    11. repec:zbw:iamodp:234476 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Munteanu, Catalina & Kamp, Johannes & Nita, Mihai Daniel & Klein, Nadja & Kraemer, Benjamin M. & Müller, Daniel & Koshkina, Alyona & Prishchepov, Alexander V. & Kuemmerle, Tobias, 2020. "Cold War spy satellite images reveal long-term declines of a philopatric keystone species in response to cropland expansion," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 287(1927), pages 1-10.
    13. Chen, Yizhao & Fei, Xinran & Groisman, Pavel & Sun, Zhengguo & Zhang, Jianan & Qin, Zhihao, 2019. "Contrasting policy shifts influence the pattern of vegetation production and C sequestration over pasture systems: A regional-scale comparison in Temperate Eurasian Steppe," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    14. Petrick, Martin & Pomfret, Richard, 2016. "Agricultural policies in Kazakhstan," IAMO Discussion Papers 234476, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    15. Gizem Mestav Sarica & Tinger Zhu & Wei Jian & Edmond Yat-Man Lo & Tso-Chien Pan, 2021. "Spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure in Shenzhen from present to future," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(5), pages 1011-1024, June.

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