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The Initial Return and Its Conditional Return Volatility: Evidence from the Chinese IPO Market

Author

Listed:
  • M. Monica Hussein

    (California State University, Northridge, Department of Finance, Financial Planning, and Insurance, David Nazarian College of Business and Economics, 18111 Nordhoff Street, Northridge, CA 91330-8379, United States)

  • Zhong-Guo Zhou

    (California State University, Northridge, Department of Finance, Financial Planning, and Insurance, David Nazarian College of Business and Economics, 18111 Nordhoff Street, Northridge, CA 91330-8379, United States)

Abstract

This paper investigates the monthly initial return and its conditional return volatility for Chinese IPOs. We find that the mean initial return (IR) and cross-sectional return volatility are highly auto- and cross-correlated, and time-varying. We propose a system of two simultaneous equations: a GARCH-in-mean (GARCH-M) process with an ARMA(1,1) adjustment in the residuals for the IR and an EGARCH process for the conditional return volatility, assuming that the IR and its conditional return volatility are linear functions of the same market, firm- and offer-specific characteristics. We find that the model captures both time-series and cross-sectional correlations at the mean and variance levels. Our findings suggest that the conditional return volatility affects the IRpositivelyandsignificantly, in addition to the traditional market, firm- and offer-specific characteristics. IPOs with higher conditional return volatility, as a proxy for information asymmetry, tend to be underpriced more. The paper demonstrates the merit of using a conditional variance model, along with time series and cross-sectional analysis to price Chinese IPOs.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Monica Hussein & Zhong-Guo Zhou, 2014. "The Initial Return and Its Conditional Return Volatility: Evidence from the Chinese IPO Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(04), pages 1-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:rpbfmp:v:17:y:2014:i:04:n:s0219091514500222
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219091514500222
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Deng, Qi & Dai, Lunge & Yang, Zixin & Zhou, Zhong-Guo & Hussein, Monica & Chen, Dingyi & Swartz, Mick, 2023. "The impacts of regulation regime changes on ChiNext IPOs: Effects of 2013 and 2020 reforms on initial return, fair value and overreaction," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Deng, Qi & Zhou, Zhong-guo, 2016. "Overreaction in ChiNext IPOs' initial returns: How much and what caused it?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 82-103.
    3. Shaio Yan Huang & Chao-Hsiung Lee & Lee-Hsien Pan & Bich Hanh Nguyen Thi, 2016. "IPO Initial Excess Return in an Emerging Market: Evidence from Vietnam’s Stock Exchanges," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-23, June.
    4. Azevedo, Alcino & Guney, Yilmaz & Leng, Jingsi, 2018. "Initial public offerings in China: Underpricing, statistics and developing literature," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 387-398.
    5. Yang, Baohua & Zhou, Yingluo & Zhou, Zhong-Guo, 2022. "Strategic behavior of insiders in initial underpricing and long-run underperformance," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    6. Monica Hussein & Zhong-guo Zhou & Qi Deng, 2020. "Does risk disclosure in prospectus matter in ChiNext IPOs’ initial underpricing?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 957-979, April.
    7. Marie-Claude Beaulieu & Habiba Mrissa Bouden, 2020. "Does idiosyncratic risk matter in IPO long-run performance?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 935-981, October.
    8. Zhou, Zhong-guo & Hussein, Monica & Deng, Qi, 2021. "ChiNext IPOs' initial returns before and after the 2013 stock market reform: What can we learn?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    9. Hon-Wei Leow & Wee-Yeap Lau, 2018. "The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on IPO Underpricing in Malaysian Stock Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(04), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Antonios Kallias & Konstantinos Kallias, 2017. "Management earnings forecasts and IPO performance: evidence of a regime change," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1083-1121, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chinese IPO underpricing; monthly initial return; conditional return volatility; model specification; auto- and cross-correlations; time series and cross-sectional analysis; G11; G12; G15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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