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Neural Networks For Technical Analysis: A Study On Klci

Author

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  • JINGTAO YAO

    (School of Computing, National University of Singapore, Lower Kent Ridge Road 119260, Singapore)

  • CHEW LIM TAN

    (School of Computing, National University of Singapore, Lower Kent Ridge Road 119260, Singapore)

  • HEAN-LEE POH

    (School of Computing, National University of Singapore, Lower Kent Ridge Road 119260, Singapore)

Abstract

This paper presents a study of artificial neural nets for use in stock index forecasting. The data from a major emerging market, Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, are applied as a case study. Based on the rescaled range analysis, a backpropagation neural network is used to capture the relationship between the technical indicators and the levels of the index in the market under study over time. Using different trading strategies, a significant paper profit can be achieved by purchasing the indexed stocks in the respective proportions. The results show that the neural network model can get better returns compared with conventional ARIMA models. The experiment also shows that useful predictions can be made without the use of extensive market data or knowledge. The paper, however, also discusses the problems associated with technical forecasting using neural networks, such as the choice of "time frames" and the "recency" problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Jingtao Yao & Chew Lim Tan & Hean-Lee Poh, 1999. "Neural Networks For Technical Analysis: A Study On Klci," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 221-241.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:02:y:1999:i:02:n:s0219024999000145
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024999000145
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Khurrum S. Mughal & Javed Iqbal, 2018. "A Thick ANN Model for Forecasting Inflation," SBP Working Paper Series 99, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    2. Jacinta Chan Phooi M’ng & Ham Yi Jer, 2021. "Do economic statistics contain information to predict stock indexes futures prices and returns? Evidence from Asian equity futures markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1033-1060, October.
    3. Wei Bao & Jun Yue & Yulei Rao, 2017. "A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Manolis Maragoudakis & Dimitrios Serpanos, 2016. "Exploiting Financial News and Social Media Opinions for Stock Market Analysis using MCMC Bayesian Inference," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 589-622, April.
    5. Dhanya Jothimani & Ravi Shankar & Surendra S. Yadav, 2016. "Discrete Wavelet Transform-Based Prediction of Stock Index: A Study on National Stock Exchange Fifty Index," Papers 1605.07278, arXiv.org.
    6. Jacinta Chan Phooi M’ng & Mohammadali Mehralizadeh, 2016. "Forecasting East Asian Indices Futures via a Novel Hybrid of Wavelet-PCA Denoising and Artificial Neural Network Models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(6), pages 1-29, June.
    7. Marcos Alvarez Díaz & Lucy Amigo Dobano & Francisco Rodríguez de Prado, "undated". "Taxing on Housing: A Welfare Evaluation of the Spanish Personal Income Tax," Studies on the Spanish Economy 142, FEDEA.
    8. Ivan Letteri & Giuseppe Della Penna & Giovanni De Gasperis & Abeer Dyoub, 2022. "A Stock Trading System for a Medium Volatile Asset using Multi Layer Perceptron," Papers 2201.12286, arXiv.org.
    9. Vu Linh Toan Le & Tien Hoang Nguyen & Khanh Duy Pham, 2023. "What Drives Industry 4.0 Technologies Adoption? Evidence from a SEM-Neural Network Approach in the Context of Vietnamese Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-32, March.
    10. Florin Dan PIELEANU, 2016. "Comparative Study In Estimating Volkswagen’S Price: Arima Versus Ann," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(2), pages 98-109, February.
    11. Bildirici, Melike & Ersin, Özgür, 2012. "Nonlinear volatility models in economics: smooth transition and neural network augmented GARCH, APGARCH, FIGARCH and FIAPGARCH models," MPRA Paper 40330, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2012.
    12. Jacinta Chan Phooi M'ng & Azmin Azliza Aziz, 2016. "Using Neural Networks to Enhance Technical Trading Rule Returns: A Case with KLCI," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 2(1), pages 63-70, January.
    13. Jasleen Kaur & Khushdeep Dharni, 2022. "Application and performance of data mining techniques in stock market: A review," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 219-241, October.
    14. Ozgur Ican & Taha Bugra Celik, 2017. "Stock Market Prediction Performance of Neural Networks: A Literature Review," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(11), pages 100-108, November.
    15. Mohammad Rafiqul Islam & Nguyet Nguyen, 2020. "Comparison of Financial Models for Stock Price Prediction," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-19, August.
    16. Ivan Letteri & Giuseppe Della Penna & Giovanni De Gasperis & Abeer Dyoub, 2022. "DNN-ForwardTesting: A New Trading Strategy Validation using Statistical Timeseries Analysis and Deep Neural Networks," Papers 2210.11532, arXiv.org.
    17. Gourav Kumar & Uday Pratap Singh & Sanjeev Jain, 2022. "Swarm Intelligence Based Hybrid Neural Network Approach for Stock Price Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 991-1039, October.
    18. Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Detecting predictable non-linear dynamics in Dow Jones Islamic Market and Dow Jones Industrial Average indices using nonparametric regressions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 22-35.
    19. Jozef Baruník, 2008. "How Do Neural Networks Enhance the Predictability of Central European Stock Returns?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(07-08), pages 358-376, Oktober.
    20. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Detecting Predictable Non-linear Dynamics in Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Islamic Market Indices using Nonparametric Regressions," Working Papers 201385, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    21. Liébana-Cabanillas, Francisco & Marinković, Veljko & Kalinić, Zoran, 2017. "A SEM-neural network approach for predicting antecedents of m-commerce acceptance," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 14-24.

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