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Heterogeneity: A Major Factor Influencing Microbial Exposure and Risk Assessment

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  • Armand Maul

Abstract

Microbial risk assessment is dependent on several biological and environmental factors that affect both the exposure characteristics to the biological agents and the mechanisms of pathogenicity involved in the pathogen‐host relationship. Many exposure assessment studies still focus on the location parameters of the probability distribution representing the concentration of the pathogens and/or toxin. However, the mean or median by themselves are insufficient to evaluate the adverse effects that are associated with a given level of exposure. Therefore, the effects on the risk of disease of a number of factors, including the shape parameters characterizing the distribution patterns of the pathogen in their environment, were investigated. The statistical models, which were developed to provide a better understanding of the factors influencing the risk, highlight the role of heterogeneity and its consequences on the commonly used risk assessment paradigm. Indeed, the heterogeneity characterizing the spatial and temporal distribution of the pathogen and/or the toxin contained in the water or food consumed is shown to be a major factor that may influence the magnitude of the risk dramatically. In general, the risk diminishes with higher levels of heterogeneity. This scheme is totally inverted in the presence of a threshold in the dose‐response relationship, since heterogeneity will then have a tremendous impact, namely, by magnifying the risk when the mean concentration of pathogens is below the threshold. Moreover, the approach of this article may be useful for risk ranking analysis, regarding different exposure conditions, and may also lead to improved water and food quality guidelines.

Suggested Citation

  • Armand Maul, 2014. "Heterogeneity: A Major Factor Influencing Microbial Exposure and Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(9), pages 1606-1617, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:34:y:2014:i:9:p:1606-1617
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12184
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Régis Pouillot & Pascal Beaudeau & Jean‐Baptiste Denis & Francis Derouin & AFSSA Cryptosporidium Study Group, 2004. "A Quantitative Risk Assessment of Waterborne Cryptosporidiosis in France Using Second‐Order Monte Carlo Simulation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Kaatje Bollaerts & Marc Aerts & Christel Faes & Koen Grijspeerdt & Jeroen Dewulf & Koen Mintiens, 2008. "Human Salmonellosis: Estimation of Dose‐Illness from Outbreak Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 427-440, April.
    3. Emilie Rieu & Koenraad Duhem & Elisabeth Vindel & Moez Sanaa, 2007. "Food Safety Objectives Should Integrate the Variability of the Concentration of Pathogen," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 373-386, April.
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