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Risk Communication Planning for the Aftermath of a Plague Bioattack

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  • Elizabeth A. Casman
  • Baruch Fischhoff

Abstract

We create an influence diagram of how a plague bioattack could unfold and then use it to identify factors shaping infection risks in many possible scenarios. The influence diagram and associated explanations provide a compact reference that allows risk communicators to identify key messages for pre‐event preparation and testing. It can also be used to answer specific questions in whatever unique situations arise, considering both the conditions of the attack and the properties of the attacked populations. The influence diagram allows a quick, visual check of the factors that must be covered when evaluating audience information needs. The documentation provides content for explaining the resultant advice. We show how these tools can help in preparing for crises and responding to them.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizabeth A. Casman & Baruch Fischhoff, 2008. "Risk Communication Planning for the Aftermath of a Plague Bioattack," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1327-1342, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:28:y:2008:i:5:p:1327-1342
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01080.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eidson, M. & Tierney, L.A. & Rollag, O.J. & Becker, T. & Brown, T. & Hull, H.F., 1988. "Feline plague in New Mexico: Risk factors and transmission to humans," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 78(10), pages 1333-1335.
    2. Elizabeth A. Casman & Baruch Fischhoff & Claire Palmgren & Mitchell J. Small & Felicia Wu, 2000. "An Integrated Risk Model of a Drinking‐Water – Borne Cryptosporidiosis Outbreak," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(4), pages 495-512, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Rose & Tyler Kustra, 2013. "Economic Considerations in Designing Emergency Management Institutions and Policies for Transboundary Disasters," Public Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 446-462, March.
    2. Julia M. Pearce & Lasse Lindekilde & David Parker & M. Brooke Rogers, 2019. "Communicating with the Public About Marauding Terrorist Firearms Attacks: Results from a Survey Experiment on Factors Influencing Intention to “Run, Hide, Tell” in the United Kingdom and Denmark," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(8), pages 1675-1694, August.
    3. Vicki Bier, 2020. "The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2207-2217, November.
    4. Parnali Dhar‐Chowdhury & C. Emdad Haque & S. Michelle Driedger, 2016. "Dengue Disease Risk Mental Models in the City of Dhaka, Bangladesh: Juxtapositions and Gaps Between the Public and Experts," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(5), pages 874-891, May.

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