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Regulating Under Uncertainty: Newsboy for Exposure Limits

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  • Roger M. Cooke
  • Margaret MacDonell

Abstract

Setting action levels or limits for health protection is complicated by uncertainty in the dose‐response relation across a range of hazards and exposures. To address this issue, we consider the classic newsboy problem. The principles used to manage uncertainty for that case are applied to two stylized exposure examples, one for high dose and high dose rate radiation and the other for ammonia. Both incorporate expert judgment on uncertainty quantification in the dose‐response relationship. The mathematical technique of probabilistic inversion also plays a key role. We propose a coupled approach, whereby scientists quantify the dose‐response uncertainty using techniques such as structured expert judgment with performance weights and probabilistic inversion, and stakeholders quantify associated loss rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger M. Cooke & Margaret MacDonell, 2008. "Regulating Under Uncertainty: Newsboy for Exposure Limits," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 577-587, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:28:y:2008:i:3:p:577-587
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01042.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. L.H.J. Goossens & R.M. Cooke & F Woudenberg & P Van Der Torn, 1998. "Expert judgement and lethal toxicity of inhaled chemicals," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 117-133, April.
    2. Du, C. & Kurowicka, D. & Cooke, R.M., 2006. "Techniques for generic probabilistic inversion," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1164-1187, March.
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