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Simulation Modeling of Anthrax Spore Dispersion in a Bioterrorism Incident

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  • Vladimir P. Reshetin
  • James L. Regens

Abstract

Recent events have increased awareness of the risk posed by terrorist attacks. Bacillus anthracis has resurfaced in the 21st century as a deadly agent of bioterrorism because of its potential for causing massive civilian casualties. This analysis presents the results of a computer simulation of the dispersion of anthrax spores in a typical 50‐story, high‐rise building after an intentional release during a bioterrorist incident. The model simulates aerosol dispersion in the case of intensive, small‐scale convection, which equalizes the concentration of anthrax spores over the building volume. The model can be used to predict the time interval required for spore dispersion throughout a building after a terrorist attack in a high‐rise building. The analysis reveals that an aerosol release of even a relatively small volume of anthrax spores during a terrorist incident has the potential to quickly distribute concentrations that are infectious throughout the building.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir P. Reshetin & James L. Regens, 2003. "Simulation Modeling of Anthrax Spore Dispersion in a Bioterrorism Incident," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(6), pages 1135-1145, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:23:y:2003:i:6:p:1135-1145
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2003.00387.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Caunhye, Aakil M. & Nie, Xiaofeng & Pokharel, Shaligram, 2012. "Optimization models in emergency logistics: A literature review," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 4-13.
    2. Chi, Hong & Li, Jialian & Shao, Xueyan & Gao, Mingang, 2017. "Timeliness evaluation of emergency resource scheduling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 1022-1032.
    3. Altay, Nezih & Green III, Walter G., 2006. "OR/MS research in disaster operations management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(1), pages 475-493, November.
    4. Tao Hong & Patrick L. Gurian & Nicholas F. Dudley Ward, 2010. "Setting Risk‐Informed Environmental Standards for Bacillus Anthracis Spores," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(10), pages 1602-1622, October.
    5. Dean, Matthew D. & Nair, Suresh K., 2014. "Mass-casualty triage: Distribution of victims to multiple hospitals using the SAVE model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 363-373.
    6. Allison C. Reilly & Andrea Staid & Michael Gao & Seth D. Guikema, 2016. "Tutorial: Parallel Computing of Simulation Models for Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(10), pages 1844-1854, October.
    7. S. S. Isukapalli & P. J. Lioy & P. G. Georgopoulos, 2008. "Mechanistic Modeling of Emergency Events: Assessing the Impact of Hypothetical Releases of Anthrax," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 723-740, June.

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