Unwarranted racial disparity in U.S. foster care placement

Black children in the U.S. are twice as likely as white children to spend time in foster care. Such racial disparities raise concerns of discrimination, but might also reflect differences in the underlying need for intervention. This paper estimates unwarranted disparities (UDs)—racial differences in placement rates for children with the same potential for future maltreatment—in national data. We use non‐parametric bounds on the potential for future maltreatment that rely on weak and transparent assumptions. Nationwide, we find that Black children are placed into foster care at higher rates than white children with identical potential for subsequent maltreatment. UD varies across states; key predictors are the proportion of Black individuals in the population and the racial makeup of caseworkers. UD is five times larger among children with potential for subsequent maltreatment than among children without and declined from 2008 to 2020, primarily due to a declining placement rate among Black children with subsequent maltreatment potential. The concentration of UD in cases with potential for future maltreatment yields important policy implications, as it may indicate an “underplacement” of white children—with declining racial gaps suggesting an elevated risk of maltreatment for Black children.