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A multicommodity model of futures prices: Using futures prices of one commodity to estimate the stochastic process of another

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  • Gonzalo Cortazar
  • Carlos Milla
  • Felipe Severino

Abstract

This article proposes a multicommodity model of futures prices of more than one commodity that allows the use of long‐maturity futures prices available for one commodity to estimate futures prices for the other. The model considers that commodity prices have common and commodity‐specific factors. A procedure for choosing the number of both types of unobservable‐Gaussian factors is presented. Also, it is shown how commodities with and without seasonality may be jointly modeled and how to estimate the model using Kalman filter. Results for the West Texas Intermediate–Brent and for the West Texas Intermediate–unleaded gasoline models presented show strong improvements over the traditional individual‐commodity models, with much lower out‐of‐sample errors and better volatility estimates, even when using fewer factors. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:537–560, 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Gonzalo Cortazar & Carlos Milla & Felipe Severino, 2008. "A multicommodity model of futures prices: Using futures prices of one commodity to estimate the stochastic process of another," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 537-560, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:28:y:2008:i:6:p:537-560
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    Cited by:

    1. Gonzalo Cortazar & Cristobal Millard & Hector Ortega & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2019. "Commodity Price Forecasts, Futures Prices, and Pricing Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(9), pages 4141-4155, September.
    2. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Kovacevic, Ivo & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2015. "Expected commodity returns and pricing models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 60-71.
    3. Michael T. Chng, 2010. "Comparing Different Economic Linkages Among Commodity Futures," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9‐10), pages 1348-1389, November.
    4. Gonzalo Cortazar & Simon Gutierrez & Hector Ortega, 2016. "Empirical Performance of Commodity Pricing Models: When is it Worthwhile to Use a Stochastic Volatility Specification?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 457-487, May.
    5. Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2018. "A common long-term trend for bulk shipping prices," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(3), pages 421-432, September.
    6. Dolores Furio & Javier Poblacion, 2018. "Electricity and Natural Gas Prices Sharing the Long-term Trend: Some Evidence from the Spanish Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 173-180.
    7. Jaime Casassus & Peng Liu & Ke Tang, 2015. "Maximal Gaussian Affine Models for Multiple Commodities: A Note," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 75-86, January.
    8. Jaime Casassus & Peng Liu & Ke Tang, 2011. "Relative Scarcity of Commodities with a Long-Term Economic Relationship and the Correlation of Futures Returns," Documentos de Trabajo 404, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    9. Farkas, Walter & Gourier, Elise & Huitema, Robert & Necula, Ciprian, 2017. "A two-factor cointegrated commodity price model with an application to spread option pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 249-268.
    10. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Beuermann, Diether & Bernales, Alejandro, 2013. "Risk Management with Thinly Traded Securities: Methodology and Implementation," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4647, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Andr�s Garc�a Mirantes & Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2012. "Analyzing the dynamics of the refining margin: implications for valuation and hedging," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1839-1855, December.
    12. Rauch, Johannes & Krayzler, Mikhail & Brunner, Bernhard & Zagst, Rudi, 2013. "Pricing of derivatives on commodity indices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 143-151.

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