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Testing the martingale hypothesis for futures prices: Implications for hedgers


  • Cédric de Ville de Goyet
  • Geert Dhaene
  • Piet Sercu


The martingale hypothesis for futures prices is investigated using a nonparametric approach where it is assumed that the expected futures returns depend (nonparametrically) on a linear combination of predictors. We first collapse the predictors into a single‐index variable where the weights are identified up to scale, using the average derivative estimator proposed by T. Stoker (1986). We then use the Nadaraya–Watson kernel estimator to calculate (and visually depict) the relationship between the estimated index and the expected futures returns. We discuss implications of this finding for a noninfinitely risk‐averse hedger. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1040–1065, 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Cédric de Ville de Goyet & Geert Dhaene & Piet Sercu, 2008. "Testing the martingale hypothesis for futures prices: Implications for hedgers," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1040-1065, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:28:y:2008:i:11:p:1040-1065

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    Cited by:

    1. Ching-Ping Wang & Hung-Hsi Huang & Chien-Chia Hung, 2011. "Implied Index And Option Pricing Errors: Evidence From The Taiwan Option Market," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(2), pages 115-125.
    2. Cotter, John & Hanly, Jim, 2015. "Performance of utility based hedges," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 718-726.
    3. Smimou, K., 2017. "Does gold Liquidity learn from the greenback or the equity?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 461-479.
    4. Barbi, Massimiliano & Romagnoli, Silvia, 2018. "Skewness, basis risk, and optimal futures demand," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 14-29.
    5. Mun, Kyung-Chun, 2016. "Hedging bank market risk with futures and forwards," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 112-125.
    6. Spencer, Simon & Bredin, Don & Conlon, Thomas, 2018. "Energy and agricultural commodities revealed through hedging characteristics: Evidence from developing and mature markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 1-20.

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