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The specification of GARCH models with stochastic covariates


  • Jeff Fleming
  • Chris Kirby
  • Barbara Ostdiek


A number of studies investigate whether various stochastic variables explain changes in return volatility by specifying the variables as covariates in a GARCH(1, 1) or EGARCH(1, 1) model. The authors show that these models impose an implicit constraint that can obscure the true role of the covariates in the analysis. They illustrate the problem by reconsidering the role of contemporaneous trading volume in explaining ARCH effects in daily stock returns. Once the constraint imposed in earlier research is relaxed, it is found that specifying volume as a covariate does little to diminish the importance of lagged squared returns in capturing the dynamics of volatility. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:911–934, 2008

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  • Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby & Barbara Ostdiek, 2008. "The specification of GARCH models with stochastic covariates," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(10), pages 911-934, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:28:y:2008:i:10:p:911-934

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    Cited by:

    1. Heejoon Han & Dennis Kristensen, 2014. "Asymptotic Theory for the QMLE in GARCH-X Models With Stationary and Nonstationary Covariates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 416-429, July.
    2. Sabbaghi, Omid, 2011. "Asymmetric volatility and trading volume: The G5 evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 169-181.

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