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Dynamics of intraday serial correlation in the Italian futures market

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  • Simone Bianco
  • Roberto Renò

Abstract

The serial correlation of high‐frequency intraday returns on the Italian stock index futures (FIB30) in the period 2000–2002 is studied. It is found that intraday autocorrelation is mostly negative for time scales lower than 20 minutes, mainly due to the bid–ask bounce effect. Although this supports the efficiency of the Italian futures market, evidence that intraday serial correlation becomes positive in high‐volatility regimes is also provided. Moreover, it is found that it is mainly unexpected volatility that makes serial correlation rise, and not its predictable part. The results are supportive of the K. Chan (1993) model. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:61–84, 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Bianco & Roberto Renò, 2006. "Dynamics of intraday serial correlation in the Italian futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 61-84, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:26:y:2006:i:1:p:61-84
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    Cited by:

    1. S. C. P. Yam & W. Zhou, 2017. "Optimal Liquidation of Child Limit Orders," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 42(2), pages 517-545, May.
    2. Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos & Tsionas, Mike, 2019. "Ordinal-response GARCH models for transaction data: A forecasting exercise," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1273-1287.
    3. Jing Nie, 2019. "High‐Frequency Price Discovery and Price Efficiency on Interest Rate Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(11), pages 1394-1434, November.
    4. Kuck, Konstantin & Maderitsch, Robert, 2019. "Intra-day dynamics of exchange rates: New evidence from quantile regression," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 247-257.
    5. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2015. "Fundamentalists, chartists and asset pricing anomalies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 1837-1850, November.
    6. Yu-Hong Liu & I-Ming Jiang & Shih-Cheng Lee & Yu-Ting Chen, 2011. "The Valuation Of Reset Options When Underlying Assets Are Autocorrelated," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(2), pages 95-114.
    7. Yoshiro Tsutsui & Kenjiro Hirayama & Takahiro Tanaka & Nobutaka Uesugi, 2007. "Special Quotes Invoke Autocorrelation in Japanese Stock Prices," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 369-386, December.
    8. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2015. "Fundamentalists, Chartists and Asset pricing anomalies," Post-Print hal-01508002, HAL.
    9. Simone Bianco & Roberto Ren'o, 2006. "Unexpected volatility and intraday serial correlation," Papers physics/0610023, arXiv.org.
    10. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2013. "Momentum effect in individual stocks and heterogeneous beliefs among fundamentalists," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 3102-3116.
    11. Immonen, Eero, 2017. "Simple agent-based dynamical system models for efficient financial markets: Theory and examples," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 38-53.
    12. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Revisiting the weak-form efficiency of the EUR/CHF exchange rate market: Evidence from episodes of different Swiss franc regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 734-746.

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