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Volatility and trading demands in stock index futures

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  • Ming‐Shiun Pan
  • Y. Angela Liu
  • Herbert J. Roth

Abstract

In this study we examine how volatility and the futures risk premium affect trading demands for hedging and speculation in the S&P 500 Stock Index futures contracts. To ascertain if different volatility measures matter in affecting the result, we employ three volatility estimates. Our empirical results show a positive relation between volatility and open interest for both hedgers and speculators, suggesting that an increase in volatility motivates both hedgers and speculators to engage in more trading in futures markets. However, the influence of volatility on futures trading, especially for hedging, is statistically significant only when spot volatility is used. We also find that the demand to trade by speculators is more sensitive to changes in the futures risk premium than is the demand to trade by hedgers. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:399–414, 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Ming‐Shiun Pan & Y. Angela Liu & Herbert J. Roth, 2003. "Volatility and trading demands in stock index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 399-414, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:23:y:2003:i:4:p:399-414
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Clements & Neda Todorova, 2014. "The impact of information flow and trading activity on gold and oil futures volatility," NCER Working Paper Series 102, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    2. Chien, Cheng-Yi & Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Tai, Shih-Wen & Liao, Tzu-Hsiang, 2013. "Information, hedging demand, and institutional investors: Evidence from the Taiwan Futures Exchange," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 394-414.
    3. Cochran, Steven J. & Mansur, Iqbal & Odusami, Babatunde, 2015. "Equity market implied volatility and energy prices: A double threshold GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 264-272.
    4. Adam E. Clements & Neda Todorova, 2016. "Information Flow, Trading Activity and Commodity Futures Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 88-104, January.

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