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Effective Foreign Aid Following Civil War: The Nonstrategic‐Desperation Hypothesis

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  • Desha M. Girod

Abstract

When does aid foster development after civil war? A testable model is needed to account for the uneven outcomes in postconflict development. This article proposes and empirically tests the novel nonstrategic‐desperation hypothesis, an explanation based on the varied incentives that fragile postconflict governments face when confronted with donor development goals. Paradoxically, incentives to meet development goals only exist when donors have little strategic interest in the recipients and when recipients lack income from resource rents and are therefore desperate for income. Ten‐year data on infant mortality changes following civil wars ending 1970–96 and a variety of robustness checks support the hypothesis. By focusing on how income sources constrain the choices of aid recipients, and how these constraints can provide incentives to meet donor development goals, the nonstrategic‐desperation hypothesis explains how the good use of aid can take place following civil war, when institutions are weak.

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  • Desha M. Girod, 2012. "Effective Foreign Aid Following Civil War: The Nonstrategic‐Desperation Hypothesis," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 188-201, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:56:y:2012:i:1:p:188-201
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00552.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Heinrich & Yoshiharu Kobayashi, 2022. "Evaluating explanations for poverty selectivity in foreign aid," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 30-47, February.
    2. McLean, Elena V., 2023. "Looking for advice: The politics of consulting services procurement in the World Bank," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Desha M. Girod, 2015. "Reducing postconflict coup risk: The low windfall coup-proofing hypothesis," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(2), pages 153-174, April.
    4. Helena Pérez Niño & Philippe Le Billon, 2014. "Foreign Aid, Resource Rents, and State Fragility in Mozambique and Angola," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 656(1), pages 79-96, November.
    5. Daina Chiba & Tobias Heinrich, 2019. "Colonial Legacy and Foreign Aid: Decomposing the Colonial Bias," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 474-499, May.
    6. Kobayashi, Yoshiharu & Heinrich, Tobias & Bryant, Kristin A., 2021. "Public support for development aid during the COVID-19 pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Amanda A Licht, 2022. "Introducing Regular Turnover Details, 1960–2015: A dataset on world leaders’ legal removal from office," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 277-285, March.
    8. Helena Pérez Niño & Philippe Le Billon, 2013. "Foreign Aid, Resource Rents and Institution-Building in Mozambique and Angola," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-102, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Jennifer Raymond Dresden, 2017. "From combatants to candidates: Electoral competition and the legacy of armed conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(3), pages 240-263, May.

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