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Verhaltener Konjunkturaufschwung nach Wachstumsdelle 2012. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Ederer
  • Serguei Kaniovski
  • Hans Pitlik
  • Thomas Url

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Die österreichische Wirtschaft wird erst ab 2014 wieder merklich an Dynamik gewinnen. Im Durchschnitt des Prognosezeitraumes 2012/2016 nimmt das BIP jährlich real um 1,6% zu. Die Ausfuhr wird um 5,5% p. a. expandieren, die Importe hingegen um nur 5,1%. Die Inflationsrate beträgt im Durchschnitt der Jahre 2012/2016 2,1%. Trotz der Zunahme der Beschäftigung bleibt die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt angespannt, da auch das Arbeitskräfteangebot wächst. Mit 7,3% wird die Arbeitslosenquote im Prognosezeitraum deutlich höher sein als zuvor. Maßvolle und nachhaltig wirksame Konsolidierungs- und Reformmaßnahmen im öffentlichen Bereich werden die Konjunktur mittelfristig nicht allzu stark dämpfen.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Ederer & Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Thomas Url, 2012. "Verhaltener Konjunkturaufschwung nach Wachstumsdelle 2012. Mittelfristige Prognose der österreichischen Wirtschaft bis 2016," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(1), pages 51-62, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2012:i:1:p:51-62
    Note: With English abstract.
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Serguei Kaniovski & Hans Pitlik & Sandra Steindl & Thomas Url, 2008. "A Decomposition of Austria's General Government Budget into Structural and Cyclical Components," WIFO Working Papers 316, WIFO.
    2. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2012. "Staatsschuldenkrise erfasst die Realwirtschaft. Prognose für 2012 und 2013," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 85(1), pages 3-15, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jürgen Janger & Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Michael Böheim & Ulrike Famira-Mühlberger & Thomas Horvath & Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig & Stefan Schönfelder & Margit Schratzenstaller & Maria M. Hofmarcher-Hol, 2014. "Monitoring of Austria's Efforts Within the Europe 2020 Strategy. Update 2013-14," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47415, February.
    2. Jürgen Janger & Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Thomas Horvath & Ina Meyer, 2013. "Monitoring Austria's Efforts Within the Europe 2020 Strategy," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46950, February.

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