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Strong Cyclical Upswing Losing Momentum. Economic Outlook for 2011 and 2012


  • Stefan Ederer



The business cycle upturn in Austria is set to continue. Lively global demand is driving up exports, and also investment in machinery and equipment should post strong gains over the forecast period. Short-term indicators nevertheless point to some slackening during the remainder of the year. The expansion of the world economy loses steam under the impact of higher raw material and energy prices, a more restrictive stance of monetary policy in some emerging markets, and the continued burden on private households in the USA. The crisis in the euro area is adding to uncertainty on the part of companies and consumers. For the whole year 2011, WIFO expects GDP to grow by around 3.0 percent, followed by +1.8 percent in 2012. External cyclical risks have increased over the last few months.

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  • Stefan Ederer, 2011. "Strong Cyclical Upswing Losing Momentum. Economic Outlook for 2011 and 2012," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 84(7), pages 451-464, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2011:i:7:p:451-464

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Rodrik, Dani, 2005. "Growth Strategies," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 967-1014 Elsevier.
    2. Michael Peneder, 1999. "The Austrian Paradox: "Old" Structures but High Performance?," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 4(4), pages 239-247, October.
    3. Peter Huber & Klaus Nowotny & Julia Bock-Schappelwein, 2010. "Qualification Structure, Over- and Underqualification of the Foreign Born in Austria and the EU," FIW Research Reports series II-008, FIW.
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    Konjunkturprognose Österreich;


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