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Real Estate Market Cycle Analysis (The Example of Tbilisi, Georgia)

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  • Nino BERAIA
  • Marine NATSVALADZE

Abstract

This paper sums up the results of the research on real estate cycles conducted by foreign scientists. In Georgia the cyclical research is limited to formal descriptive statistics and econometric analysis of the subject has not so far been conducted. The paper introduces the use of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter to assess the average length of the real estate cycles by filtering the Tbilisi real estate index time series. The results of the research suggest that Tbilisi real estate market follows a 2?2.5 year cycle pattern. The findings of the study will be useful for the real estate market prognosis, will help the investors and portfolio manager companies in decision making regarding strategy, the type of the real estate and the location. A greater understanding of the real estate cycles can help the policy makers in counter cyclical economic and social planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Nino BERAIA & Marine NATSVALADZE, 2017. "Real Estate Market Cycle Analysis (The Example of Tbilisi, Georgia)," The Valuation Journal, The National Association of Authorized Romanian Valuers, vol. 12(1), pages 42-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:vaj:journl:v:12:y:2017:i:1:p:42-57
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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