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Are Expert Opinions Accurate? Panel Data Evidence from the Iowa Land Value Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Wendong Zhang
  • Sergio H. Lence
  • Todd Kuethe

Abstract

Opinion surveys are the dominant method for gauging U.S. farmland values. However, there is no systematic evaluation of how opinions are formulated and change over time. Using panel data of agricultural professionals from the Iowa Land Value Survey over 2005–2015, we investigate how surveyed experts update their farmland value estimates. We find that experts almost fully correct their prior “errors” in a single period. Experts’ opinions also incorporate most of the prevailing price innovations in one period. Our Bayesian estimation technique simultaneously addresses the unobservability and nonstationarity of prevailing farmland values and the Nickell bias in short dynamic panels.

Suggested Citation

  • Wendong Zhang & Sergio H. Lence & Todd Kuethe, 2021. "Are Expert Opinions Accurate? Panel Data Evidence from the Iowa Land Value Survey," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 97(4), pages 875-892.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:97:y:2021:i:4:p:875-892
    Note: DOI: 10.3368/le.97.4.080820-0124R
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    File URL: http://le.uwpress.org/cgi/reprint/97/4/875
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    Cited by:

    1. Albulena Basha & Wendong Zhang & Chad Hart, 2021. "The impacts of interest rate changes on US Midwest farmland values," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 81(5), pages 746-766, February.
    2. Plastina, Alejandro & Zhang, Wendong & Sawadgo, Wendiam, 2024. "By How Much Can Appraised Farm Values Differ Across Appraisers?," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2024, January.
    3. Chen, Le & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Aglasan, Serkan & Hagen, Stephen & Salas, William, 2022. "The Impact of No-Till Production on Agricultural Land Values in the US Midwest," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322445, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Le Chen & Roderick M. Rejesus & Serkan Aglasan & Stephen Hagen & William Salas, 2023. "The impact of no‐till on agricultural land values in the United States Midwest," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(3), pages 760-783, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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