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More Laws, More Growth? Evidence from US States

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  • Elliott Ash
  • Massimo Morelli
  • Matia Vannoni

Abstract

This paper analyzes the conditions under which more legislation contributes to economic growth. In the context of US states, we apply natural language processing tools to measure legislative flows for the years 1965–2012. We implement a novel shift-share design for text data, where the instrument for legislation is leave-one-out legal topic flows interacted with pretreatment legal topic shares. We find that at the margin, higher legislative output causes more economic growth. Consistent with more complete laws reducing ex post holdup, we find that the effect is driven by the use of contingent clauses, is largest in sectors with high relationship-specific investments, and is increasing with local economic uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Elliott Ash & Massimo Morelli & Matia Vannoni, 2025. "More Laws, More Growth? Evidence from US States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(7), pages 2139-2179.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/734874
    DOI: 10.1086/734874
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Sara Amoroso & Benedikt Herrmann & Alexander S. Kritikos, 2023. "The Role of Regulation and Regional Government Quality for High Growth Firms: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," CEPA Discussion Papers 71, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Sara Amoroso & Benedikt Herrmann & Alexander S. Kritikos, 2023. "The Role of Regulation and Regional Government Quality for High Growth Firms: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2053, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Amoroso, Sara & Herrmann, Benedikt & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2023. "The Role of Regulation and Regional Government Quality for High Growth Firms: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IZA Discussion Papers 16563, IZA Network @ LISER.
    5. Laura Battaglia & Timothy M. Christensen & Stephen Hansen & Szymon Sacher, 2024. "Inference for regression with variables generated from unstructured data," CeMMAP working papers 10/24, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Laura Battaglia & Timothy Christensen & Stephen Hansen & Szymon Sacher, 2024. "Inference for Regression with Variables Generated by AI or Machine Learning," Papers 2402.15585, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    7. Bartolozzi, D. & Gara, M. & Marchetti, D.J. & Masciandaro, D., 2022. "Designing the anti-money laundering supervisor: The governance of the financial intelligence units," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1093-1109.
    8. Stuart Shapiro, 2024. "Counting regulations and measuring regulatory impact: a call for nuance," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. José Libardo Mejía Ciro & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2024. "Acumulación regulatoria y crecimiento económico: una aproximación empírica para Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 98(6), pages 141-162.

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