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Does Household Consumption Behave as a Martingale? A Test for Rural South India

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  • Bhargava, Alok
  • Ravallion, Martin

Abstract

The hypothesis that consumption evolves over time as a martingale process is tested on household panel data for three villages in South India. A novel feature of the methodology is that it gives consistent estimates of dynamic effects in short panels. The estimated coefficients of lagged consumption are generally smaller than unity and a number of the lagged income and wealth variables are statistically significant. The results are inconsistent with the proposition that consumption equals permanent income. This is also true when the data are disaggregated by household wealth. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhargava, Alok & Ravallion, Martin, 1993. "Does Household Consumption Behave as a Martingale? A Test for Rural South India," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 500-504, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:75:y:1993:i:3:p:500-504
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher B. Barrett & John G. McPeak, 2006. "Poverty Traps and Safety Nets," Economic Studies in Inequality, Social Exclusion, and Well-Being, in: Alain Janvry & Ravi Kanbur (ed.), Poverty, Inequality and Development, chapter 0, pages 131-154, Springer.
    2. Jonathan Morduch, 2002. "Consumption Smoothing Across Space: Testing Theories of Risk-Sharing in the ICRISAT Study Region of South India," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-55, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Alba Robert Dumi & Edit Ura & Estela Çobo, 2012. "Management Concepts and Theories, the Strategic Development Levels on Transfer Organizational Work in the Poor Countries," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 1, November.
    4. Sandra Freire, 2004. "Funeral Costs, Saving Behaviour and HIV/AIDS," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla04092, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    5. Masao Ogaki & Qiang Zhang, 2000. "Risk Sharing in Village India: the Rule of Decreasing Relative Risk Aversion," Working Papers 00-02, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Martin Ravallion, 2003. "Targeted transfers in poor countries : revisiting the trade-offs and policy options," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 27869, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Z18 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Public Policy

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