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How Green Is Sugarcane Ethanol?

Author

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  • Marcelo Sant'Anna

    (FGV EPGE, Brazilian School of Economics and Finance)

Abstract

Biofuels offer one approach for reducing carbon emissions. However, the necessary agricultural expansion may endanger tropical forests. I use a dynamic model of land use to disentangle the roles of acreage and yields in the supply of sugarcane ethanol in Brazil. The model is estimated using remote sensing (satellite) information of sugarcane activities. Estimates imply that, at the margin, 92% of new ethanol comes from increases in area and only 8% from increases in yield. Direct deforestation accounts for 19% of area expansion at the margin in the long run. I further assess carbon emissions and deforestation implications from ethanol policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Sant'Anna, 2024. "How Green Is Sugarcane Ethanol?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 202-216, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:106:y:2024:i:1:p:202-216
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01136
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    Cited by:

    1. Rafael Araujo & Vitor Possebom, 2025. "Potato Potahto in the FAO-GAEZ Productivity Measures? Nonclassical Measurement Error with Multiple Proxies," Papers 2502.12141, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    2. David J. Lea-Smith & Francis Hassard & Frederic Coulon & Natalie Partridge & Louise Horsfall & Kyle D. J. Parker & Robert D. J. Smith & Ronan R. McCarthy & Boyd McKew & Tony Gutierrez & Vinod Kumar & , 2025. "Engineering biology applications for environmental solutions: potential and challenges," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. repec:osf:socarx:8yfr7_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Xie, Zeyu & Mai, Zhanming & Yang, Mian, 2025. "Photovoltaic expansion and ecological trade-offs: Short-term vegetation loss and rapid recovery," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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