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A multistage decision-dependent stochastic bilevel programming approach for power generation investment expansion planning

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  • Yiduo Zhan
  • Qipeng P. Zheng

Abstract

In this article, we study the long-term power generation investment expansion planning problem under uncertainty. We propose a bilevel optimization model that includes an upper-level multistage stochastic expansion planning problem and a collection of lower-level economic dispatch problems. This model seeks for the optimal sizing and siting for both thermal and wind power units to be built to maximize the expected profit for a profit-oriented power generation investor. To address the future uncertainties in the decision-making process, this article employs a decision-dependent stochastic programming approach. In the scenario tree, we calculate the non-stationary transition probabilities based on discrete choice theory and the economies of scale theory in electricity systems. The model is further reformulated as a single-level optimization problem and solved by decomposition algorithms. The investment decisions, computation times, and optimality of the decision-dependent model are evaluated by case studies on IEEE reliability test systems. The results show that the proposed decision-dependent model provides effective investment plans for long-term power generation expansion planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Yiduo Zhan & Qipeng P. Zheng, 2018. "A multistage decision-dependent stochastic bilevel programming approach for power generation investment expansion planning," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(8), pages 720-734, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uiiexx:v:50:y:2018:i:8:p:720-734
    DOI: 10.1080/24725854.2018.1442032
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Zhouchun & Zheng, Qipeng Phil, 2020. "A multistage stochastic programming approach for preventive maintenance scheduling of GENCOs with natural gas contract," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 1036-1051.
    2. Hassan Shavandi & Mehrdad Pirnia & J. David Fuller, 2018. "Extended opportunity cost model to find near equilibrium electricity prices under non-convexities," Papers 1809.09734, arXiv.org.
    3. Escudero, Laureano F. & Monge, Juan F. & Rodríguez-Chía, Antonio M., 2020. "On pricing-based equilibrium for network expansion planning. A multi-period bilevel approach under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(1), pages 262-279.
    4. Shavandi, Hassan & Pirnia, Mehrdad & Fuller, J. David, 2019. "Extended opportunity cost model to find near equilibrium electricity prices under non-convexities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 251-264.

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