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Valuation of road projects with uncertain outcomes

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Listed:
  • Giuseppe Scannella
  • Michel Beuthe

Abstract

This is a practical implementation of a multicriteria methodology developed to assess the risk involved in investment or policy projects. It is based on the specification of a non-linear, but piecewise linear, additive utility function, where the partial utility functions are specified as recursive exponential functions of only one curvature parameter. This allows for a reduction of the quantity of information necessary to build the utility function in a context of uncertainty. It is introduced in an aggregation model whereby the partial utility functions are built separately through a specific questioning process. The methodology is applied to the selection of road infrastructure projects of the Walloon Region in Belgium with several experts and civil servants from the Transport Ministry whose individual utility functions are derived. Software called MUSTARD is used, which stepwise and interactively helps the decision-makers to formulate the problem, build the criteria's distributions and state their preferences. The projects are ranked according to their rate of return computed on the basis of the projects' certain equivalent money values.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Scannella & Michel Beuthe, 2003. "Valuation of road projects with uncertain outcomes," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 35-50, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transr:v:23:y:2003:i:1:p:35-50
    DOI: 10.1080/01441640309896
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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Hui & Zhang, Yiting & Wang, Yuning & Li, Lei & Sheng, Yun, 2015. "A social stakeholder support assessment of low-carbon transport policy based on multi-actor multi-criteria analysis: The case of Tianjin," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 103-116.
    2. Maria Luisa Lode & Geert te Boveldt & Cathy Macharis & Thierry Coosemans, 2021. "Application of Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis for Transition Management in Energy Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Macharis, Cathy & Bernardini, Annalia, 2015. "Reviewing the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the evaluation of transport projects: Time for a multi-actor approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 177-186.
    4. Macharis, Cathy & De Witte, Astrid & Turcksin, Laurence, 2010. "The Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (MAMCA) application in the Flemish long-term decision making process on mobility and logistics," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 303-311, September.
    5. Francis Marleau Donais & Irène Abi-Zeid & E. Owen D. Waygood & Roxane Lavoie, 2019. "A review of cost–benefit analysis and multicriteria decision analysis from the perspective of sustainable transport in project evaluation," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 7(3), pages 327-358, November.

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