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Long-term impact of the Shinkansen on rail and air demand: analysis with data from Northeast Japan

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  • Fumiaki Demizu
  • Yeun-Touh Li
  • Jan-Dirk Schmöcker
  • Toshiyuki Nakamura
  • Nobuhiro Uno

Abstract

This paper analyses how the high-speed rail construction in Northeast Japan (Tohoku) has affected total demand and interregional travel patterns. We use annual interregional passenger data from 1989 to 2012 and apply regression analysis with the demand between Tokyo and the Tohoku prefectures as the dependent variable. We distinguish particularly between the ‘Full-’ and the ‘Mini-’ Shinkansen, where the latter are branch services running with reduced speed. We find that the ‘Full-Shinkansen’ quickly increases rail and total public transport trips and generates additional rail demand year on year. The ‘Mini-Shinkansen’ impacts are less pronounced. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the Shinkansen has shifted some demand from air to rail once it started operation and increased rail share gradually. We therefore suggest that predictions of demand impacts should carefully distinguish immediate from gradual impacts. We also discuss differences in regional demand in that not all prefectures have gained equally from Shinkansen construction.

Suggested Citation

  • Fumiaki Demizu & Yeun-Touh Li & Jan-Dirk Schmöcker & Toshiyuki Nakamura & Nobuhiro Uno, 2017. "Long-term impact of the Shinkansen on rail and air demand: analysis with data from Northeast Japan," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 741-756, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:40:y:2017:i:7:p:741-756
    DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2017.1340023
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    Cited by:

    1. Jin, Wenwan & Zhu, Shengjun, 2023. "High-speed rail network and regional convergence/divergence in industrial structure," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    2. Liu, Shuli & Wan, Yulai & Ha, Hun-Koo & Yoshida, Yuichiro & Zhang, Anming, 2019. "Impact of high-speed rail network development on airport traffic and traffic distribution: Evidence from China and Japan," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 115-135.
    3. Llorca, Carlos & Ji, Joanna & Molloy, Joseph & Moeckel, Rolf, 2018. "The usage of location based big data and trip planning services for the estimation of a long-distance travel demand model. Predicting the impacts of a new high speed rail corridor," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 27-36.
    4. Tanaka, Koichi, 2023. "Impacts of the opening of the maglev railway on daily accessibility in Japan: A comparative analysis with that of the Shinkansen," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    5. Wang, Sen & Gao, Yi, 2021. "A literature review and citation analyses of air travel demand studies published between 2010 and 2020," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).

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