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Determinants of bargaining success in the climate change negotiations

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  • Florian Weiler

Abstract

A novel data set, combining interview data with negotiation delegates and hand-coded data of delegate statements, was used to empirically test six hypotheses about the determinants of bargaining success in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations. The success of a state's bargaining strategy was evaluated by first measuring the distance from a state's original position on eight policy issues (e.g. emissions reduction targets) to the current state of the negotiations. The results were then readjusted using salience weights to control for how important each negotiation issue has been for each delegation. It was found that the external power of a state and how vulnerable a state is to climate change positively influence its bargaining success, while the extremity of a state's position and its share of emissions appears to negatively influence it. In addition, the use of soft bargaining strategies by a state, which mutually benefits all concerned actors, was found to positively influence success when a negotiation issue was particularly salient to it. Thus, it appears that the influence of powerful nations, such as the US and China, in the climate change negotiations may not be as strong as previously thought.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Weiler, 2012. "Determinants of bargaining success in the climate change negotiations," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 552-574, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:12:y:2012:i:5:p:552-574
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2012.691225
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Oberthür & Lisanne Groen, 2015. "The Effectiveness Dimension of the EU's Performance in International Institutions: Toward a More Comprehensive Assessment Framework," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(6), pages 1319-1335, November.
    2. Lisanne Groen, 2019. "Explaining European Union effectiveness (goal achievement) in the Convention on Biological Diversity: the importance of diplomatic engagement," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 69-87, February.
    3. Marcel Franke & Bernhard K. J. Neumärker, 2022. "A Climate Alliance through Transfer: Transfer Design in an Economic Conflict Model," World, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-14, February.
    4. Detlef F. Sprinz & Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Steffen Kallbekken & Frans Stokman & Håkon Sælen & Robert Thomson, 2016. "Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 172-187.
    5. Benjamin Bagozzi, 2015. "The multifaceted nature of global climate change negotiations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 439-464, December.
    6. Magnus Lundgren & Stefanie Bailer & Lisa M Dellmuth & Jonas Tallberg & Silvana Târlea, 2019. "Bargaining success in the reform of the Eurozone," European Union Politics, , vol. 20(1), pages 65-88, March.
    7. Inés Águeda Corneloup & Arthur Mol, 2014. "Small island developing states and international climate change negotiations: the power of moral “leadership”," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 281-297, September.
    8. Never, Babette, 2013. "Toward the Green Economy: Assessing Countries' Green Power," GIGA Working Papers 226, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    9. Charles Roger & Satishkumar Belliethathan, 2016. "Africa in the global climate change negotiations," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 91-108, February.

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