Do We Understand the Linkages between Economic Growth, Poverty Targets and Poverty Reduction?

This article contributes to the debate on poverty trends in Africa, looking at the argument for a correspondence between economic growth and poverty reduction. It questions whether a link between economic growth and poverty reduction can be established. First there is a look at the general picture in Africa and no convincing evidence of this link is found, before the article turns to two countries, Burkina Faso and Madagascar, which on the surface seem to exemplify the link. However, in Burkina Faso the link exists only in a limited way and for only a short period (1998--2003), while in Madagascar, where the link appears more obvious, social and political unrest in 2009 casts doubt on the reliability of the data. Indeed, it is probable that an increase in poverty contributed to the crisis in Madagascar. Furthermore, there are signs that in both countries poverty strategies are increasingly giving way to Poverty Reduction Growth Facility programmes, closely related to former structural adjustment loans. It is concluded, first, that analysing poverty strategies through Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers does not help in resolving the uncertainty, since these strategies assume a priori the existence of a link between economic growth and poverty reduction; second, that collection and interpretation of poverty data could be biased, with the World Bank, for example, having an interest in showing improvements in poverty reduction in Africa; and, finally, that the paucity of data needs, at the very least, to be recognised as a major problem.