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Seasonality in Inflation Volatility: Evidence from Turkey

Author

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  • M. Hakan Berument
  • Afsin Sahin

Abstract

This paper assesses the presence of seasonal volatility in price indexes where a similar type of pattern has been reported in asset prices in financial markets. The empirical evidence from Turkey for the monthly period from 1987:01 to 2007:05 suggests the presence of seasonality in the conditional variance of inflation. Thus, inferences for the models that do not account for the seasonality in the conditional variance will be misleading.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Hakan Berument & Afsin Sahin, 2010. "Seasonality in Inflation Volatility: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 39-65, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:recsxx:v:13:y:2010:i:1:p:39-65
    DOI: 10.1016/S1514-0326(10)60003-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Snežana Radukić & Milan Marković & Milica Radović, 2015. "The Effect of Food Prices on Inflation in the Republic of Serbia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 4(2), pages 23-36.
    2. Łukasz Lenart, 2017. "Examination of Seasonal Volatility in HICP for Baltic Region Countries: Non-Parametric Test versus Forecasting Experiment," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 29-67, March.
    3. Radukić, Snežana & Marković, Milan, 2015. "Limitation Of Trade Margins As A Measure Of Food Price Controls: Experience Of Serbia," Economics of Agriculture, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 1-13, March.
    4. Afsin Sahin & Volkan Ulke, 2015. "Farkli Belirsizlik Duzeylerinde Faiz Oraninin Makroekonomik Degiskenlere Etkileri : Turkiye Uzerine Etkilesimli Vektor Otoregresif Modeli Uygulamasi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 15(1), pages 65-93.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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