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Pricing swing options in the electricity markets under regime-switching uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • M. I. M. Wahab
  • Z. Yin
  • N. C. P. Edirisinghe

Abstract

The spot price market for electricity is highly volatile. The time series of the daily average electricity price is characterised by seasonality, mean reversion, jumps, and regime-switching processes. In electricity markets, 'swing' contracts, which can provide some protection against the day-to-day price fluctuations, are used to incorporate flexibility in acquiring given quantities of electricity. We develop a lattice approach for the valuation of swing options by modelling the daily average price of electricity by a regime-switching process that utilises three regimes, consisting of Brownian motions and a mean-reverting process. Various numerical examples are presented to illustrate the methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • M. I. M. Wahab & Z. Yin & N. C. P. Edirisinghe, 2010. "Pricing swing options in the electricity markets under regime-switching uncertainty," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(9), pages 975-994.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:10:y:2010:i:9:p:975-994
    DOI: 10.1080/14697680903547899
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hendrik Kohrs & Hermann Mühlichen & Benjamin R. Auer & Frank Schuhmacher, 2019. "Pricing and risk of swing contracts in natural gas markets," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 77-167, April.
    2. M. I. M. Wahab & C. -G. Lee & P. Sarkar, 2023. "A real options approach to value manufacturing flexibilities with regime-switching product demand," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 864-895, September.
    3. Marcus Eriksson & Jukka Lempa & Trygve Nilssen, 2014. "Swing options in commodity markets: a multidimensional Lévy diffusion model," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 79(1), pages 31-67, February.
    4. Carl Chiarella & Les Clewlow & Boda Kang, 2016. "The Evaluation Of Multiple Year Gas Sales Agreement With Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(01), pages 1-25, February.
    5. Elias, R.S. & Wahab, M.I.M. & Fang, L., 2014. "A comparison of regime-switching temperature modeling approaches for applications in weather derivatives," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(3), pages 549-560.

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