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Human capital, technological progress and the demographic transition

Author

Listed:
  • A. Prskawetz
  • G. Steinmann
  • G. Feichtinger

Abstract

We emphasize the importance to consider components of population growth — fertility and mortality - separately, when modeling the mutual interaction between population and economic growth. Our model implies that two countries with the same population growth will not converge towards the same level of per capita income. The country with the lower level of birth and death rates will be better off in the long run. Introducing a spill over effect of average human capital on total productivity our model implies multiple equilibria as illustrated in Becker el al. (1990) and Strulik (1999). Besides the existence of a low and high level equilibrium - as characterized by low and high levels of per capita output respectively - we show the existence of multiple low level (Malthusian) equilibria. Initial conditions and parameters of technological progress and human capital investment determine whether an economy is capable to escape the low level equilibrium trap and to enjoy sustained economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Prskawetz & G. Steinmann & G. Feichtinger, 2000. "Human capital, technological progress and the demographic transition," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 343-363.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:7:y:2000:i:4:p:343-363
    DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525466
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Winkler-Dworak, 2004. "Food Security, Fertility Differentials and Land Degradation in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Framework," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 227-252.
    2. Edgardo Bucciarelli & Gianfranco Giulioni, 2011. "A Basic Model of Take-Off and Fertility Choices in the Economic Development Process," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 125-148, April-Jun.
    3. Michael Grimm, 2000. "Comportement familial, inégalités et croissance : Une revue de la littérature," Working Papers DT/2000/09, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    4. Luciano Fanti & Mimmo Iannelli & Piero Manfredi, 2010. "Endogenous Age Structure in Descriptive Macroeconomic Growth Models: A General Framework and Some Steady State Analysis," Chapters, in: Neri Salvadori (ed.), Institutional and Social Dynamics of Growth and Distribution, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Maria Winkler-Dworak, 2003. "Food Security, Fertility Differentials and Land Degradation in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Framework," VID Working Papers 0301, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    6. Luciano Fanti & Luca Spataro, 2008. "Poverty traps and intergenerational transfers," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(6), pages 693-711, December.

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