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Investigating the cyclical behaviour of the dry bulk shipping market

Author

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  • Claudio Chist�
  • Gary van Vuuren

Abstract

Cyclical behaviour in the shipping market was investigated, for the first time, using Fourier analysis to extract cycle frequency information from data which have been Hodrick-Prescott filtered; in this case, dry freight earnings data. An industry rule of thumb asserts that shipping cycles last 7 years, but using a sample of daily dry charter earnings over a 21-year period, a prominent 4-year shipping cycle in the dry bulk sector is found, with a longer 7-year cycle superimposed. A better understanding of the shipping cycle will facilitate investment, since timing has been identified as a principal decision-driver.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Chist� & Gary van Vuuren, 2014. "Investigating the cyclical behaviour of the dry bulk shipping market," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:marpmg:v:41:y:2014:i:1:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2013.780216
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    Cited by:

    1. Zheng, Shiyuan & Lan, Xiangang, 2016. "Multifractal analysis of spot rates in tanker markets and their comparisons with crude oil markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 547-559.
    2. Zhang, Yi, 2018. "Investigating dependencies among oil price and tanker market variables by copula-based multivariate models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 435-446.

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