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COVID-19 risk perception: a longitudinal analysis of its predictors and associations with health protective behaviours in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Claudia R. Schneider
  • Sarah Dryhurst
  • John Kerr
  • Alexandra L. J. Freeman
  • Gabriel Recchia
  • David Spiegelhalter
  • Sander van der Linden

Abstract

In this study, we present results from five cross-sectional surveys on public risk perception of COVID-19 and its association with health protective behaviours in the UK over a 10-month period (March 2020 to January 2021). Samples were nationally balanced on age, gender, and ethnicity (total N = 6,281). We find that although risk perception varies between the time points surveyed, it is consistently, significantly, and positively correlated with the reported adoption of protective health behaviours, such as wearing face masks or social distancing. There is also an increase in reported health protective behaviours in the UK between March 2020 and January 2021. The strength of the association between risk perception and behaviour varies by time point, with a stronger relationship in January 2021 compared to March and May 2020. We also assess the stability of the psychological determinants of risk perception over time. People’s prosocial tendencies and individualistic worldviews, experience with the virus, trust in government, science, and medical professionals, as well as personal and collective efficacy all emerged as significant predictors. With few exceptions, these predictors remained consistent in their relationship with risk perception over time. Lastly, we find that psychological factors are more predictive of risk perception than an objective measure of situational severity, i.e. the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases at the time of data collection. Implications for risk communication are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudia R. Schneider & Sarah Dryhurst & John Kerr & Alexandra L. J. Freeman & Gabriel Recchia & David Spiegelhalter & Sander van der Linden, 2021. "COVID-19 risk perception: a longitudinal analysis of its predictors and associations with health protective behaviours in the United Kingdom," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3-4), pages 294-313, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jriskr:v:24:y:2021:i:3-4:p:294-313
    DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2021.1890637
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    Cited by:

    1. Jessica R. Murfree, 2023. "Exploring Major League Baseball Fans’ Climate Change Risk Perceptions and Adaptation Willingness," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-17, May.
    2. De Witte, Dries & Delporte, Margaux & Molenberghs, Geert & Verbeke, Geert & Demarest, Stefaan & Hoorens, Vera, 2023. "Self-uniqueness beliefs and adherence to recommended precautions. A 5-wave longitudinal COVID-19 study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    3. Suphunnika Termmee, 2023. "The Influence of Social, Political, and Social Media on COVID-19 Risk Communication and Health Behaviour in Thailand," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 45(1), pages 318-326, July.
    4. Talia Goren & Dana R. Vashdi & Itai Beeri, 2022. "Count on trust: the indirect effect of trust in government on policy compliance with health behavior instructions," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 55(4), pages 593-630, December.
    5. Jina Choo & Sooyeon Park & Songwhi Noh, 2021. "Associations of COVID-19 Knowledge and Risk Perception with the Full Adoption of Preventive Behaviors in Seoul," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-14, November.
    6. Arora, Varun & Chakravarty, Sujoy & Kapoor, Hansika & Mukherjee, Shagata & Roy, Shubhabrata & Tagat, Anirudh, 2023. "No going back: COVID-19 disease threat perception and male migrants' willingness to return to work in India," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 533-546.
    7. Georgia Treneman-Evans & Becky Ali & James Denison-Day & Tara Clegg & Lucy Yardley & Sarah Denford & Rosie Essery, 2022. "The Rapid Adaptation and Optimisation of a Digital Behaviour-Change Intervention to Reduce the Spread of COVID-19 in Schools," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-22, May.
    8. Alfonso Gastelum-Strozzi & Claudia Infante-Castañeda & Juan Guillermo Figueroa-Perea & Ingris Peláez-Ballestas, 2021. "Heterogeneity of COVID-19 Risk Perception: A Socio-Mathematical Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-14, October.
    9. Timothy Mc Call & Susanne Lopez Lumbi & Michel Rinderhagen & Meike Heming & Claudia Hornberg & Michaela Liebig-Gonglach, 2023. "Risk Perception of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: Influencing Factors and Implications for Environmental Health Crises," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-14, February.
    10. Younjung Kim & Christl A. Donnelly & Pierre Nouvellet, 2023. "Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 testing behaviour: a modelling study using nationwide testing data in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Edward J. D. Webb & Paul Kind & David Meads & Adam Martin, 2024. "COVID-19 and EQ-5D-5L health state valuation," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 25(1), pages 117-145, February.
    12. Szczuka, Zofia & Siwa, Maria & Abraham, Charles & Baban, Adriana & Brooks, Sydney & Cipolletta, Sabrina & Danso, Ebrima & Dombrowski, Stephan U. & Gan, Yiqun & Gaspar, Tania & Gaspar de Matos, Margari, 2023. "Handwashing adherence during the COVID-19 pandemic: A longitudinal study based on protection motivation theory," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    13. Amra Čaušević, 2023. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Travel Behavior and Travel Mode Preferences: The Example of Bosnia and Herzegovina," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-32, July.
    14. Anna Szuster & Miroslawa Huflejt-Łukasik & Dorota Karwowska & Maciej Pastwa & Zuzanna Laszczkowska & Kamil K. Imbir, 2022. "Affective Attitudes in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Dynamics of Negative Emotions and a Sense of Threat in Poles in the First Wave of the Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-17, October.
    15. Bird, Matthew D. & Arispe, Samuel & Muñoz, Paula & Freier, Luisa Feline, 2023. "Trust, social protection, and compliance: Moral hazard in Latin America during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 279-295.
    16. Savadori, Lucia & Lauriola, Marco, 2022. "Risk perceptions and COVID-19 protective behaviors: A two-wave longitudinal study of epidemic and post-epidemic periods," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    17. Sylvia Xiao Wei Gwee & Pearleen Ee Yong Chua & Junxiong Pang, 2022. "SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in the Military during the Early Phase of the Pandemic—A Systematic Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-27, June.
    18. Zbyslaw Dobrowolski, 2021. "Why Some Countries Win and others Loose from the COVID-19 Pandemic? Navigating the Uncertainty," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 1217-1226.
    19. Carmen-Mihaela Cretu & Anca-Gabriela Turtureanu & Carmen-Gabriela Sirbu & Florentina Chitu & Emanuel Ştefan Marinescu & Laurentiu-Gabriel Talaghir & Daniela Monica Robu, 2021. "Tourists’ Perceptions Regarding Traveling for Recreational or Leisure Purposes in Times of Health Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-24, July.

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