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An external validity test of intended behavior: Comparing revealed preference and intended visitation in response to climate change

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  • John Loomis
  • Robert Richardson

Abstract

We compare revealed preference and survey response estimates of changes in National Park visitation behavior from climate change. The revealed preference model is estimated from a time-series regression analysis of past visitation as a function of historic weather variability. We find no statistical difference between the revealed preference regression estimates and intended behavior estimates from a visitor survey for the total number of National Park visits. Confidence intervals for the two models overlap, and the mean estimates of the change in visitation are within 12% of each other. The paper concludes with the implications for natural resource planners and managers who must frequently evaluate the effects of alternative policies before the selection of a preferred alternative, and also must plan for accommodating changes in visitor use.

Suggested Citation

  • John Loomis & Robert Richardson, 2006. "An external validity test of intended behavior: Comparing revealed preference and intended visitation in response to climate change," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 621-630.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jenpmg:v:49:y:2006:i:4:p:621-630
    DOI: 10.1080/09640560600747562
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    Cited by:

    1. Hediger, Cécile & Farsi, Mehdi & Weber, Sylvain, 2018. "Turn It Up and Open the Window: On the Rebound Effects in Residential Heating," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 21-39.
    2. Smith, Jordan W. & Seekamp, Erin & McCreary, Allie & Davenport, Mae & Kanazawa, Mark & Holmberg, Kerry & Wilson, Bruce & Nieber, John, 2016. "Shifting demand for winter outdoor recreation along the North Shore of Lake Superior under variable rates of climate change: A finite-mixture modeling approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Martínez-de-Albéniz, Victor & Belkaid, Abdel, 2021. "Here comes the sun: Fashion goods retailing under weather fluctuations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 820-830.
    4. John C. Whitehead & Ben Poulter & Christopher F. Dumas & Okmyung Bin, 2009. "Measuring the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise on Beach Recreation," Working Papers 09-11, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    5. Attavanich, Witsanu & Rashford, Benjamin S. & Adams, Richard M. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2011. "Land Use, Climate Change and Ecosystem Services," MPRA Paper 83947, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    6. Eugene Y. Chan & Jack Lin, 2022. "Political ideology and psychological reactance: how serious should climate change be?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-22, May.

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