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Is there a causal relationship between oil prices and tourist arrivals?

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  • Hossein Hassani
  • Mansi Ghodsi
  • Xu Huang
  • Emmanuel Sirimal Silva

Abstract

This application note investigates the causal relationship between oil price and tourist arrivals to further explain the impact of oil price volatility on tourism-related economic activities. The analysis itself considers the time domain, frequency domain and information theory domain perspectives. Data relating to US and nine European countries are exploited in this paper with causality tests which include time domain, frequency domain, and Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM). The CCM approach is nonparametric and therefore not restricted by assumptions. We contribute to existing research through the successful and introductory application of an advanced method, and via the uncovering of significant causal links from oil prices to tourist arrivals.

Suggested Citation

  • Hossein Hassani & Mansi Ghodsi & Xu Huang & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva, 2021. "Is there a causal relationship between oil prices and tourist arrivals?," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 191-202, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:48:y:2021:i:1:p:191-202
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2020.1720625
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    Cited by:

    1. Faisal, Faisal & Rahman, Sami Ur & Chander, Rajnesh & Ali, Adnan & Ramakrishnan, Suresh & Ozatac, Nesrin & Ullah, Mr Noor & Tursoy, Turgut, 2021. "Investigating the nexus between GDP, oil prices, FDI, and tourism for emerging economy: Empirical evidence from the novel fourier ARDL and hidden cointegration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Bingbo Gao & Jianyu Yang & Ziyue Chen & George Sugihara & Manchun Li & Alfred Stein & Mei-Po Kwan & Jinfeng Wang, 2023. "Causal inference from cross-sectional earth system data with geographical convergent cross mapping," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.

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