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Forecasting Foreign Exchange Markets Using Google Trends: Prediction Performance of Competing Models

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  • Jordan Wilcoxson
  • Lendie Follett
  • Sean Severe

Abstract

Foreign exchange markets affect a variety of humans and businesses worldwide and there is a wide array of literature aimed at providing more accurate forecasts of their movement. In an attempt to quantify human expectations, Google query search terms related to foreign exchange markets are used to help explain and predict foreign exchange rates between the United States’ dollar and ten other currencies during the time period of January 2004 and August 2018. We find evidence that, while Google Trends can be helpful in prediction, it is necessary to implement some sort of shrinkage or sparsity scheme on the coefficients.

Suggested Citation

  • Jordan Wilcoxson & Lendie Follett & Sean Severe, 2020. "Forecasting Foreign Exchange Markets Using Google Trends: Prediction Performance of Competing Models," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 412-422, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:hbhfxx:v:21:y:2020:i:4:p:412-422
    DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2020.1716233
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    Cited by:

    1. Chi, Tsung-Li & Liu, Hung-Tsen & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2023. "Hedging performance using google Trends–Evidence from the indian forex options market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 107-123.
    2. Svatopluk Kapounek & Zuzana Kučerová & Evžen Kočenda, 2022. "Selective Attention in Exchange Rate Forecasting," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 210-229, May.
    3. Adebayo Felix Adekoya & Isaac Kofi Nti & Benjamin Asubam Weyori, 2021. "Long Short-Term Memory Network for Predicting Exchange Rate of the Ghanaian Cedi," FinTech, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Lin, Yong & Wang, Renyu & Gong, Xingyue & Jia, Guozhu, 2022. "Cross-correlation and forecast impact of public attention on USD/CNY exchange rate: Evidence from Baidu Index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    5. Jiam Song & Kwangmin Jung & Jonghun Kam, 2023. "Evidence of the time-varying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on online search activities relating to shopping products in South Korea," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Puhr, Harald & Müllner, Jakob, 2022. "Foreign to all but fluent in many: The effect of multinationality on shock resilience," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(6).

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