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Regional GDP Distortion and Analyst Forecast Accuracy: Evidence from China

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  • Zhiyang Lin
  • Danglun Luo
  • Feida (Frank) Zhang

Abstract

The reliability of China’s GDP data has been questioned for a long time. Prior studies have discussed the causes of GDP distortion in China, but the evidence on the economic consequences is scant. This paper examines the economic consequences of regional GDP distortion from the perspective of analyst forecasts. We find that regional GDP distortion leads to lower analyst forecast accuracy, and this result is robust to potential endogeneity. Further investigations show that analysts with information advantages have the ability to resist the distorted GDP data and issue accurate forecasts. Political pressure is another factor leading to inaccurate analyst forecasts. Our paper contributes to the literature by highlighting the importance of the reliability of GDP figures as a determinant of analyst forecast accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiyang Lin & Danglun Luo & Feida (Frank) Zhang, 2022. "Regional GDP Distortion and Analyst Forecast Accuracy: Evidence from China," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4-5), pages 437-460, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:28:y:2022:i:4-5:p:437-460
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2021.1918203
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Qi & Hu, Yi & Jiao, Jianbin & Wang, Shouyang, 2023. "Is refined oil price regulation a “shock absorber” for crude oil price shocks?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).

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