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Global systemic risk measures and their forecasting power for systemic events

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  • Peter Grundke
  • Michael Tuchscherer

Abstract

Since the financial crisis of 2007–2009, many market-based systemic risk measures have been proposed. Prominent examples are MES, SRISK or ΔCoVaR. Based on a simulation study in an extended banking network model that incorporates several sources of systemic risk, we analyze how well these systemic risk measures perform in indicating the risk of a systemic event. For this analysis, the systemic risk measures of the banks that default and whose default is followed by a systemic event are compared with the systemic risk measures of those defaulting banks for which no subsequent systemic event can be observed. Within the simulation study, we find that many bank-individual systemic risk measures are statistically significant in explaining the likelihood of a systemic event after a bank’s default. However, the economic significance of the bank-individual systemic risk measures is relatively low.

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  • Peter Grundke & Michael Tuchscherer, 2019. "Global systemic risk measures and their forecasting power for systemic events," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 205-233, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:25:y:2019:i:3:p:205-233
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2018.1509102
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    Cited by:

    1. Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta & Urga, Giovanni, 2021. "Leverage and systemic risk pro-cyclicality in the Chinese financial system," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Bellavite Pellegrini, Carlo & Cincinelli, Peter & Meoli, Michele & Urga, Giovanni, 2022. "The contribution of (shadow) banks and real estate to systemic risk in China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta & Urga, Giovanni, 2022. "Systemic risk in the Chinese financial system: A panel Granger causality analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Mikhail I. Stolbov & Maria A. Shchepeleva & Alexander M. Karminsky, 2021. "A global perspective on macroprudential policy interaction with systemic risk, real economic activity, and monetary intervention," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.
    5. Pham, Thach N. & Powell, Robert & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2021. "Systemically important banks in Asian emerging markets: Evidence from four systemic risk measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Bellavite Pellegrini, Carlo & Cincinelli, Peter & Meoli, Michele & Urga, Giovanni, 2022. "The role of shadow banking in systemic risk in the European financial system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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