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Intra-Group Competition And Inter-Group Conflict: An Application To Northern Ireland

  • Colin Jennings

This paper reviews four economic theories of leadership selection in conflict settings. The 'credibility rationale', argues that hawks may actually be necessary to initiate peace agreements. The 'bargaining rationale' predicts that while doves are more likely to secure peace, post-conflict hawks may be rationally selected. The 'social psychological rationale' captures the idea of a competition over which group can form the strongest identity. Dove selection can be predicted during conflict, but hawk selection post-conflict. Finally, the 'expressive rationale' predicts that regardless of the underlying nature of the game the large group nature of decision-making in rendering individual decision makers non-decisive in determining the outcome of elections may cause them to make choices based primarily on emotions. Finally, the paper analyses the extent to which the theories can throw light on Northern Ireland electoral history over the last 25 years.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Defence and Peace Economics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 63-83

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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:1:p:63-83
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  1. V. V. Chari & Larry E. Jones & Ramon Marimon, 1997. "The economics of split-ticket voting in representative democracies," Working Papers 582, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. M. Rabin, 2001. "Incorporating Fairness into Game Theory and Economics," Levine's Working Paper Archive 511, David K. Levine.
  3. Jennings, Colin, 2007. "Political leadership, conflict, and the prospects for constitutional peace," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4196, The World Bank.
  4. Geoffrey Brennan & Alan Hamlin, 2002. "Expressive Constitutionalism," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 299-311, December.
  5. Jennings, Colin & Roelfsema, Hein, 2008. "Civil conflict, federalism and strategic delegation of leadership," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-16, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  6. Tim Besley & Stephen Coate, . ""An Economic Model of Representative Democracy''," CARESS Working Papres 95-02, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
  7. Cukierman, A. & Tommasi, M., 1997. "When does it take a Nixon to go to China?," Discussion Paper 1997-91, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  8. Brandauer, Stefan & Englmaier, Florian, 2009. "A model of strategic delegation in contests between groups," Munich Reprints in Economics 22028, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  9. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1992. "The Politics of 1992: Fiscal Policy and European Integration," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 689-701, October.
  10. R Dur & H.J. Roelfsema, 2004. "Why Does Centralisation Fail to Internalise Policy Externalities?," Working Papers 04-09, Utrecht School of Economics.
  11. repec:str:wpaper:0001 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Colin Jennings & Alan Hamlin, 2004. "Leadership and Conflict," Economics Series Working Papers 200, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  13. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Stergios Skaperdas, 2006. "Economics of Conflict: An Overview," Working Papers 050623, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2006.
  14. Eric Kaufmann & Henry Patterson, 2006. "Intra-Party Support for the Good Friday Agreement in the Ulster Unionist Party," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 54, pages 509-532, October.
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