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Intra-Group Competition And Inter-Group Conflict: An Application To Northern Ireland

  • Colin Jennings

This paper reviews four economic theories of leadership selection in conflict settings. The 'credibility rationale', argues that hawks may actually be necessary to initiate peace agreements. The 'bargaining rationale' predicts that while doves are more likely to secure peace, post-conflict hawks may be rationally selected. The 'social psychological rationale' captures the idea of a competition over which group can form the strongest identity. Dove selection can be predicted during conflict, but hawk selection post-conflict. Finally, the 'expressive rationale' predicts that regardless of the underlying nature of the game the large group nature of decision-making in rendering individual decision makers non-decisive in determining the outcome of elections may cause them to make choices based primarily on emotions. Finally, the paper analyses the extent to which the theories can throw light on Northern Ireland electoral history over the last 25 years.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Defence and Peace Economics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 63-83

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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:22:y:2011:i:1:p:63-83
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  1. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Stergios Skaperdas, 2006. "Economics of Conflict: An Overview," Working Papers 050623, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2006.
  2. Rabin, Matthew, 1993. "Incorporating Fairness into Game Theory and Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1281-1302, December.
  3. Colin Jennings & Alan Hamlin, 2004. "Leadership and Conflict," Economics Series Working Papers 200, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Jennings, Colin, 2007. "Political leadership, conflict, and the prospects for constitutional peace," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4196, The World Bank.
  5. repec:str:wpaper:0001 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1992. "The Politics of 1992: Fiscal Policy and European Integration," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 689-701, October.
  7. Stefan Brandauer & Florian Englmaier, 2006. "A Model of Strategic Delegation in Contests between Groups," CESifo Working Paper Series 1654, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. V. V. Chari & Larry E. Jones & Ramon Marimon, 1997. "The economics of split-ticket voting in representative democracies," Working Papers 582, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Robert Dur & Hein Roelfsema, 2005. "Why does centralisation fail to internalise policy externalities?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 395-416, March.
  10. Cukierman, Alex & Tommasi, Mariano, 1998. "When Does It Take a Nixon to Go to China?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 180-97, March.
  11. Brandauer, Stefan & Englmaier, Florian, 2009. "A model of strategic delegation in contests between groups," Munich Reprints in Economics 22028, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  12. Colin Jennings & Hein Roelfsema, 2008. "Civil Conflict, Federalism and Strategic Delegation of Leadership," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 45(4), pages 557-573, July.
  13. Besley, Timothy & Coate, Stephen, 1997. "An Economic Model of Representative Democracy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 85-114, February.
  14. Eric Kaufmann & Henry Patterson, 2006. "Intra-Party Support for the Good Friday Agreement in the Ulster Unionist Party," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 54, pages 509-532, October.
  15. Geoffrey Brennan & Alan Hamlin, 2002. "Expressive Constitutionalism," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 299-311, December.
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