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Foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy rules under a managed floating regime: evidence from China


  • Dong Lu
  • Tian Xia
  • Hang Zhou


This paper investigates the consequences of foreign exchange (FX) intervention in monetary policy under a managed floating regime. Focusing on China’s FX intervention, we identify periods of strong and weak FX intervention using a Markov regime switching approach. We then evaluate quantity-based monetary policy rules using both regime switching reduced-form and structural estimations. In particular, monetary policy regimes obtained from the structural estimation match well with the previously identified intervention regimes. We find that the People’s Bank of China has significant exchange rate stabilization incentives during periods of strong FX intervention, and that the monetary policy rule depends on the state of FX intervention. Furthermore, our estimations point to a trade-off between the central bank’s internal and external policy targets in that strong FX intervention leads to weak responses to domestic GDP and inflation fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong Lu & Tian Xia & Hang Zhou, 2022. "Foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy rules under a managed floating regime: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(28), pages 3226-3245, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:54:y:2022:i:28:p:3226-3245
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2021.2005767

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    Cited by:

    1. Yahui Yang & Zhe Peng, 2024. "Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from China," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 121-158, February.

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