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Predicting US county economic resilience from industry input-output accounts

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  • Yicheol Han
  • Stephan J. Goetz

Abstract

Resilience is defined as a system’s ability to initially resist and then recover from a shock. Here we apply this concept to examine the performance of U.S. counties during the Great Recession. The response of local economies to manmade and natural shocks is hypothesized to depend on the centrality of local industries within the economy, or how well connected they are to the other industries. We first calculate a centrality value for each industry using the national Input-Output accounts. We then ‘step down’ these values to the county level using industry employment data. We then test empirically whether local economies containing more centralized industries were more resilient, using a resilience measure that compares the local employment rebound and decline during the Great Recession. Our results suggest that measures of economic centrality adopted from the study of complex networks provide new insights when applied to the fields of regional science and spatial analysis, and economic growth more generally.

Suggested Citation

  • Yicheol Han & Stephan J. Goetz, 2019. "Predicting US county economic resilience from industry input-output accounts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(19), pages 2019-2028, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:19:p:2019-2028
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1539806
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    Cited by:

    1. Kyungbo Park & Hangook Kim & Jeonghwa Cha, 2023. "An Exploratory Study on the Development of a Crisis Index: Focusing on South Korea’s Petroleum Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Priscila Silva & Mariana Hidalgo & Mindy Hotchkiss & Lasitha Dharmasena & Igor Linkov & Lance Fiondella, 2024. "Predictive Resilience Modeling Using Statistical Regression Methods," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-30, July.
    3. Yicheol Han & Stephan J Goetz, 2019. "Measuring network rewiring over time," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, July.
    4. Shade T. Shutters & Srinivasa S. Kandala & Fangwu Wei & Ann P. Kinzig, 2021. "Resilience of Urban Economic Structures Following the Great Recession," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-11, February.
    5. Azzam, Azzeddine & Gren, Ing-Marie & Andersson, Hans, 2023. "Comparative resilience of US and EU meat processing to the Covid19 pandemic," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    6. Yicheol Han & Stephan J. Goetz & Claudia Schmidt, 2021. "Visualizing Spatial Economic Supply Chains to Enhance Sustainability and Resilience," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, February.
    7. repec:ags:aaea22:335449 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Seoyoung Yu & Donghyun Kim, 2021. "Changes in Regional Economic Resilience after the 2008 Global Economic Crisis: The Case of Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-14, October.
    9. Philip Watson & Steven Deller, 2022. "Tourism and economic resilience," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1193-1215, August.
    10. Shanshan Ye & Mingming Cao, 2023. "The Impact of Industrial Linkage Structures on Urban Economic Resilience in China in the Context of the COVID-19 Shock," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-15, March.
    11. Yanling Jin & Yi Xu & Rui Li & Changping Zhao & Zhenghui Yuan, 2022. "Comprehensive Evaluation of China’s Input–Output Sector Status Based on the Entropy Weight-Social Network Analysis Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-25, November.
    12. Zaman, Azaz & Miao, Ruiqing, 2024. "Stability and resilience in farm income: The role of federal farm programs," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 344069, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Luyi Han & Stephan J Goetz & Daniel Eades & Jason Entsminger & Doug Arbogast, 2023. "An early assessment of COVID-19’s impact on tourism in U.S. counties," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(5), pages 1355-1375, August.
    14. Josh Matti & Amir B. Ferreira Neto, 2023. "Consolidated city–county governments and economic stability," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 263-286, September.
    15. Kitsos, Anastasios & Grabner, Simone Maria & Incera, Andre Carrascal, 2022. "The role of embeddedness in regional economic resistance," SocArXiv b759j, Center for Open Science.
    16. Chang-Tai Lee & Jin-Li Hu & Ming-Hsin Kung, 2022. "Economic Resilience in the Early Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Across-Economy Comparison," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-25, April.
    17. Di Tommaso, Marco R. & Prodi, Elena & Pollio, Chiara & Barbieri, Elisa, 2023. "Conceptualizing and measuring “industry resilience”: Composite indicators for postshock industrial policy decision-making," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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