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Unemployment and output dynamics in CIS countries: Okun’s law revisited

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  • Marat Ibragimov
  • Rustam Ibragimov

Abstract

Okun’s law is a well-known relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and output growth. The main objective of this article is to provide a rigorous econometric analysis of Okun’s law for several CIS countries using different models and theoretically justified econometric methods. The traditional approach to Okun’s law estimation using OLS regressions does not account for possible endogeneity of regressors and the implied inconsistency of the estimates obtained. These problems point out to incorrectness of applications of the standard OLS estimation techniques. Our study addresses these issues by using econometrically justified instrumental variable regression methods. The article provides the results and discussions on practical use of Okun’s relationships for evaluation of average effects of economic growth on the unemployment rate, and vice versa; importance of accounting for confidence intervals in applications of Okun’s models to economic development analysis and cross-country comparisons and evaluation of effects of crises and other structural shocks on the economies considered. We also discuss in detail the results of formal econometric tests and economic motivation for validity of instrumental variables used in the study. The formal econometric tests, together with economic arguments, allow us to determine the most appropriate Okun-type models for each of the CIS countries under consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Marat Ibragimov & Rustam Ibragimov, 2017. "Unemployment and output dynamics in CIS countries: Okun’s law revisited," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(34), pages 3453-3479, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:34:p:3453-3479
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1262519
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    Cited by:

    1. Umba Nsabimana, 2023. "Okun's law: Place-of-birth-specific unemployment in Sweden," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(3), pages 1539-1547.
    2. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The heterogeneity of Okun's law: A metaregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    3. Molobe Joyce Ramakgasha & Tshephi Kingsley Thaba & Nengovhela Rudzani, 2024. "Agricultural Production and Agricultural Employment Rate in South Africa: Time Series Analysis Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 148-153, July.
    4. Luigi Bonaventura & Roberto Cellini & Mario Sambataro, 2020. "Gender differences in the Okun's law across the Italian regions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 2780-2789.
    5. Compagnucci, Fabiano & Gentili, Andrea & Valentini, Enzo & Gallegati, Mauro, 2021. "Have jobs and wages stopped rising? Productivity and structural change in advanced countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 412-430.
    6. Elhorst, J. Paul & Emili, Silvia, 2022. "A spatial econometric multivariate model of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    7. Chenini Moussa & Ayad Hicham & Attouchi Manel & Dahmani Mohamed Driouche, 2023. "Testing the Validity of Okun’s Law in Algeria: Is there a difference between Maki’s Cointegration and Quantile’s Regression Results?," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 23(1), pages 42-63, June.

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