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Alternative estimators of cointegrating parameters in models with nonstationary data: an application to US export demand

  • James J. Forest
  • Paul Turner

This article presents Monte Carlo simulations which compare the empirical performance of two alternative single equation estimators of the equilibrium parameters in a dynamic relationship. The estimators considered are Stock and Watson's Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimator and Bewley's transformation of the general autoregressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that the Bewley transformation produces a lower mean-square error as well as superior serial correlation properties even with lower truncation lags for the lagged variables included in the estimation equation. An application is then provided which examines the nature of the equilibrium relationship between aggregate US exports, world trade and the US real exchange rate. This confirms that estimation of the equilibrium parameters of this relationship by the Bewley transformation produces results which are superior to estimation by DOLS.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2011.608647
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 45 (2013)
Issue (Month): 5 (February)
Pages: 629-636

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:5:p:629-636
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  1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2004. "Do public investments crowd out private investments? Fresh evidence from Fiji," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 747-753, September.
  2. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
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  7. Steven Cook, 2008. "Econometric analysis of interest rate pass-through," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 249-251.
  8. Hayakawa, Kazuhiko & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2008. "The role of “leads” in the dynamic OLS estimation of cointegrating regression models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 555-560.
  9. Bewley, R. A., 1979. "The direct estimation of the equilibrium response in a linear dynamic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 357-361.
  10. Harb, Nasri, 2005. "Import Demand in Heterogeneous Panel Setting," MPRA Paper 13622, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Konno, Toru & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2003. "Did NAFTA cause the structural changes in bilateral import functions between the US and Mexico?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 53-59, January.
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  13. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Stock-Watson dynamic OLS (DOLS) and error-correction modelling approaches to estimating long- and short-run elasticities in a demand function: new evidence and methodological implications from an appl," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 315-334, October.
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