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Time lags in the pass-through of crude oil prices: big data evidence from the German gasoline market

Author

Listed:
  • Manuel Frondel
  • Colin Vance
  • Alex Kihm

Abstract

This article investigates the pass-through of global Brent oil notations to fuel prices across the oligopoly of retail majors in Germany. We assemble a high-frequency panel data set that encompasses millions of price observations and allows us to distinguish effects by brand. Upon establishing a cointegrating relationship between fuel and crude oil prices using daily data, we estimate an ECM and find that (1) the pass-through of oil prices critically depends on the number of time lags included in the ECM; (2) strict adherence to classical information criteria for determining lag length yields extremely long pass-through durations and (3) the estimated impulse response functions are virtually identical across brands, irrespective of the lag count, suggesting a high degree of competition among brands.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Frondel & Colin Vance & Alex Kihm, 2016. "Time lags in the pass-through of crude oil prices: big data evidence from the German gasoline market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(10), pages 713-717, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:23:y:2016:i:10:p:713-717
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1102836
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    Cited by:

    1. Kahl, Mats Petter, 2024. "Cross-border competition in the gasoline retail market: Impact of proximity at the German-Polish border," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Frederik von Waldow & Heike Link, 2024. "Spatial Competition and Pass-through of Fuel Taxes: Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2086, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Frondel, Manuel & Horvath, Marco & Vance, Colin & Kihm, Alexander, 2019. "Increased market transparency in Germany's gasoline market: What about rockets and feathers?," Ruhr Economic Papers 810, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    4. D. O. Olayungbo & T. A. Ojeyinka, 2022. "Crude oil prices pass-through to retail petroleum product prices in Nigeria: evidence from hidden cointegration approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 951-972, May.
    5. Haucap, Justus & Heimeshoff, Ulrich & Siekmann, Manuel, 2016. "Selling gasoline as a by-product: The impact of market structure on local prices," DICE Discussion Papers 240, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    6. Horvath, Marco, 2019. "Germany's market transparency unit for fuels: Fostering collusion or competition?," Ruhr Economic Papers 836, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Siekmann, Manuel, 2017. "Characteristics, causes, and price effects: Empirical evidence of intraday Edgeworth cycles," DICE Discussion Papers 252, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    8. Lesage, James P. & Vance, Colin & Chih, Yao-Yu, 2016. "A Bayesian heterogeneous coefficients spatial autoregressive panel data model of retail fuel price rivalry," Ruhr Economic Papers 617, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Eibelshäuser, Steffen & Wilhelm, Sascha, 2017. "Markets Take Breaks: Dynamic Price Competition with Opening Hours," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168247, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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