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The relation between gold and stocks: an analysis of severe bear markets

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  • An-Sing Chen
  • James Wuh Lin

Abstract

No prior research has (1) studied the relation between gold and stocks for the four severe bear markets since 1960s, (2) used different segments of stock markets simultaneously for analysis and (3) implemented a system of equations to control for exogenous and endogenous variables to investigate the role of gold for investments hedge in these severe bear market periods, and compare the results with its role in nonbear market periods. Results show that gold was a good instrument for hedging stock market risk for only two of the four severe bear market periods analysed. For nonbear market periods, except for small-cap stocks, gold also did not offer good risk hedging. The findings are of interest, as it coincides with the fact that small-cap stocks are the riskiest and most volatile investment even during economic good times, and gold is found to offer a risk-hedging power for this segment of the stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • An-Sing Chen & James Wuh Lin, 2014. "The relation between gold and stocks: an analysis of severe bear markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 158-170, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:21:y:2014:i:3:p:158-170
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2013.844321
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    1. repec:eco:journ1:2014-03-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Oduyemi, Gabriel O., 2021. "How COVID-19 upturns the hedging potentials of gold against oil and stock markets risks: Nonlinear evidences through threshold regression and markov-regime switching models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Yingying Xu & Chi-Wei Su & Jaime Ortiz, 2021. "Is gold a useful hedge against inflation across multiple time horizons?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1175-1189, March.
    4. Raza, Naveed & Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Syed & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 290-301.
    5. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Hille, Erik & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2020. "Diversification in the age of the 4th industrial revolution: The role of artificial intelligence, green bonds and cryptocurrencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Choudhry, Taufiq & Hassan, Syed S. & Shabi, Sarosh, 2015. "Relationship between gold and stock markets during the global financial crisis: Evidence from nonlinear causality tests," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 247-256.
    7. Le, TN-Lan & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2021. "Time and frequency domain connectedness and spill-over among fintech, green bonds and cryptocurrencies in the age of the fourth industrial revolution," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    8. Hatice Gaye Gencer & Zafer Musoglu, 2014. "Volatility Transmission and Spillovers among Gold, Bonds and Stocks: An Empirical Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 705-713.
    9. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2022. "Does oil connect differently with prominent assets during war? Analysis of intra-day data during the Russia-Ukraine saga," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Ke Chen & Meng Wang, 2017. "Does Gold Act as a Hedge and a Safe Haven for China’s Stock Market?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-18, August.
    11. Othman, Nurhuda & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Granger-causality between palm oil, gold and stocks (islamic and conventional): Malaysian evidence based on ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 106777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Rizwan Ali & Inayat Ullah Mangla & Ramiz Ur Rehman & Wuzhao Xue & Muhammad Akram Naseem & Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad, 2020. "Exchange Rate, Gold Price, and Stock Market Nexus: A Quantile Regression Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-16, August.
    13. Hong, Yanran & Ma, Feng & Wang, Lu & Liang, Chao, 2022. "How does the COVID-19 outbreak affect the causality between gold and the stock market? New evidence from the extreme Granger causality test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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