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Die Effekte der Zuwanderung auf das langfristige Erwerbspersonenpotenzial

Author

Listed:
  • Johann Fuchs
  • Alexander Kubis
  • Lutz Schneider

Abstract

Demographic change will shrink the German workforce, while at the same time the number of retirees will rise considerably. The authors quantify the reduction of the workforce in Germany until 2050. Moreover, they analyse whether immigration may possibly offset the projected labour supply shrinkage. It is shown that–in the long term–immigration significantly moderates the reduction of workforce potential, but it does not reverse the trend. In the short term, however, immigration will notably increase labour supply in Germany. Only in 2030 will the workforce shrink back to its current level. Copyright ZBW and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Johann Fuchs & Alexander Kubis & Lutz Schneider, 2015. "Die Effekte der Zuwanderung auf das langfristige Erwerbspersonenpotenzial," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 95(12), pages 845-850, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:95:y:2015:i:12:p:845-850
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-015-1912-x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gürtzgen, Nicole & Kubis, Alexander & Rebien, Martina, 2017. "IAB-Stellenerhebung: Geflüchtete kommen mehr und mehr am Arbeitsmarkt an (Refugees increasingly visible at the German labour market)," IAB-Kurzbericht 201714, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Jaschke, Philipp & Keita, Sekou, 2019. "Spracherwerb vor der Zuwanderung: Förderung von Deutschkursen im Ausland lohnt sich (Language acquisition before immigration: Promotion of German courses abroad pays off)," IAB-Kurzbericht 201921, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    F22; J11; J61;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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