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Assessing Climate Vulnerability of Ramsar Wetlands through CMIP6 Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Shivam Singh

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

  • Manish Kumar Goyal

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

  • Erumalla Saikumar

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Wetlands are essential for preserving numerous natural cycles and providing habitat for a wide variety of wildlife. They are essential to maintaining the appropriate balance of the ecosystem. The Ramsar Convention categorises wetlands as Ramsar Wetlands based on certain parameters (botanical, geological, and hydrological features) and national importance. There could be multiple threats to the wetland ecosystem such as habitat loss, pollution, invasive species, climate change, overexploitation, hydrological modifications, etc. This study delves into assessing the climate vulnerability of 15 newly designated Ramsar sites in India in 2022. Historical analysis of the inundation area of these sites from 1991 to 2022 was performed using pre-processed Landsat imageries in Google Earth Engine. The accuracy of mapping inundation was evaluated by creating error matrix and analyzing user’s accuracy, producer’s accuracy and overall accuracy. Future climate vulnerability was assessed using recent climate projections of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP 245) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 6 (CMIP6). Machine learning regression algorithms were employed to understand the relationship between wetland inundation and climate variables, paving the way for predictive analysis. Some Ramsar sites showed significantly decreasing trends in past inundation patterns, highlighting their potential vulnerability to climate changes. This analysis underscores the importance of proactive measures to protect these Ramsar sites in the face of evolving climatic conditions, emphasizing the critical role of conservation efforts in preserving these essential ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Shivam Singh & Manish Kumar Goyal & Erumalla Saikumar, 2024. "Assessing Climate Vulnerability of Ramsar Wetlands through CMIP6 Projections," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(4), pages 1381-1395, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03726-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03726-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ikramul Hasan & Weibo Liu & Chao Xu, 2023. "Monitoring and Analyzing the Seasonal Wetland Inundation Dynamics in the Everglades from 2002 to 2021 Using Google Earth Engine," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Yi Xi & Shushi Peng & Philippe Ciais & Youhua Chen, 2021. "Future impacts of climate change on inland Ramsar wetlands," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 45-51, January.
    3. Malte Grossmann & Ottfried Dietrich, 2012. "Integrated Economic-Hydrologic Assessment of Water Management Options for Regulated Wetlands Under Conditions of Climate Change: A Case Study from the Spreewald (Germany)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(7), pages 2081-2108, May.
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