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Management Influences on Stream-Flow Variability in the Past and Under Potential Climate Change in a Central European Mining Region

Author

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  • Ina Pohle

    (The James Hutton Institute
    Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg)

  • Anne Gädeke

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Sabine Schümberg

    (Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg)

  • Christoph Hinz

    (Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg)

  • Hagen Koch

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

Abstract

Robust assessments of stream-flow volume and variability under current and potential future conditions are essential for sustainable water resources planning and management. Non-linear and overlapping responses to climate, land use, and water resources management (WRM) make it difficult to link observed stream-flow variability to individual drivers and to project potential future changes in stream-flow volume and variability. Here, we investigate WRM influences on stream-flow variability for two rivers with similar natural catchment characteristics, the Schwarze Elster and the Spree. The Schwarze Elster is characterized by less intensive WRM compared to the Spree. Management influences on stream-flow variability in the past were analysed by comparing observed managed stream-flow with simulated natural flow (model SWIM). Simulation results of natural flow and managed stream-flow (model WBalMo) forced by different climate scenarios were investigated to assess management influences on potential future stream-flow. The Schwarze Elster shows little management influences on stream-flow both in the past and under future scenarios. WRM related to lignite mining activities rather than natural processes dominated seasonal and annual stream-flow variability of the Spree in the past, while reservoir management mainly impacted short-term variability. Long-term and short-term stream-flow variability of the Spree are expected to be further reduced in future by reservoir management and water transfers to ensure minimum flow requirements. Strong impacts of WRM in reducing stream-flow variability in future scenarios underline the role of reservoir management as an effective and flexible adaptation option to uncertain climate change impacts on hydrology.

Suggested Citation

  • Ina Pohle & Anne Gädeke & Sabine Schümberg & Christoph Hinz & Hagen Koch, 2019. "Management Influences on Stream-Flow Variability in the Past and Under Potential Climate Change in a Central European Mining Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(15), pages 5191-5206, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:15:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02432-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02432-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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