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Stochastic Simulation and Management of an Over-Exploited Aquifer Using an Integrated Modeling System

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  • P. Sidiropoulos
  • N. Mylopoulos
  • A. Loukas

Abstract

A modeling system for the stochastic simulation and management of the overexploited groundwater resources of Lake Karla Basin in Central Greece is presented. The uncertainty of the hydrogeological environment which arises from the lack of the hydraulic conductivity data and aquifer’s heterogeneity necessitates the stochastic simulation of the underlying aquifer. For the conditional stochastic simulation of hydraulic conductivity, the geostatistical approach was used generating Monte-Carlo realizations. The impact of Lake Karla (or reservoir) restoration and the accompanying projects on the aquifer, is examined through various management scenarios taking into consideration this parameter uncertainty. The target of the restoration plan is to rehabilitate aquifer’s water table. This will be achieved through shutting down a great number of irrigation wells, as the irrigation needs of cultivations will be covered by the reservoir. The project with the highest environmental impact on the aquifer is the construction of 50 water supply wells at the lakeside zone of Lake Karla. Nowadays, due to the intense agricultural cultivation, the study area faces a serious water deficit problem, which has led to the over-exploitation of non-renewable groundwater and to a dramatic drawdown of aquifer’s water table. The results of the stochastic simulation and management indicates that the operation of the new water supply wells will lead, despite the operation of the new reservoir, to a further drawdown of aquifer’s water table, and will increase the effect of parameter uncertainty on hydraulic heads estimation by groundwater model. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • P. Sidiropoulos & N. Mylopoulos & A. Loukas, 2015. "Stochastic Simulation and Management of an Over-Exploited Aquifer Using an Integrated Modeling System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(3), pages 929-943, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:3:p:929-943
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0852-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhenji Zhang & Runtong Zhang & Juliang Zhang (ed.), 2013. "Liss 2012," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-32054-5, January.
    2. A. Loukas & N. Mylopoulos & L. Vasiliades, 2007. "A Modeling System for the Evaluation of Water Resources Management Strategies in Thessaly, Greece," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(10), pages 1673-1702, October.
    3. Domenico Baú, 2012. "Planning of Groundwater Supply Systems Subject to Uncertainty Using Stochastic Flow Reduced Models and Multi-Objective Evolutionary Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2513-2536, July.
    4. Y. Mylopoulos & N. Theodosiou & N. Mylopoulos, 1999. "A Stochastic Optimization Approach in the Design of an Aquifer Remediation under Hydrogeologic Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 13(5), pages 335-351, October.
    5. Aristotelis Mantoglou & George Kourakos, 2007. "Optimal Groundwater Remediation Under Uncertainty Using Multi-objective Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 835-847, May.
    6. P. Sidiropoulos & N. Mylopoulos & A. Loukas, 2013. "Optimal Management of an Overexploited Aquifer under Climate Change: The Lake Karla Case," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(6), pages 1635-1649, April.
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    1. J. Tzabiras & L. Vasiliades & P. Sidiropoulos & A. Loukas & N. Mylopoulos, 2016. "Evaluation of Water Resources Management Strategies to Overturn Climate Change Impacts on Lake Karla Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5819-5844, December.

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