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Reliability Analysis Applied on Land Subsidence Effects of Groundwater Remediation: Probabilistic vs. Deterministic Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Alimonti

    (University of Rome La Sapienza)

  • Mara Lombardi

    (University of Rome La Sapienza)

  • Monica Cardarilli

    (University of Rome La Sapienza)

  • Elena Soldo

    (University of Rome La Sapienza)

Abstract

The quantification of soil variability is one of the most important aspects in the geo-engineering context. The uncertainty analysis is the main part of the reliability assessment for which a quantitative evaluation was performed in this study. The Reliability Index and the Probability of Failure using the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) represents both, an effective method which is easy to implement at the same time. This work analyzes possible effects of compaction induced into the aquifer of the Scarlino Plain, caused by the extension of the hydraulic barrier for groundwater remediation. The currently implemented vertical barrier is composed of 12 wells which reach the depth of 10 m. The improvement of the project involves the construction of a further 40 clusters, each consisting of a doublet which intercepts different depths (10 and 18 m). The models of the subsoil stratigraphy and of the groundwater were built using a numerical model. The groundwater flow and the piezometric surface in the current configuration of the barrier were studied and the project configuration was evaluated. Using the Aquitard drainage model, the land subsidence was estimated to calculate the maximum admissible displacement related to exhibited goods, the so called territorial vulnerability. The evaluation analysis was performed using a traditional deterministic approach, followed by a reliability method based on probabilistic models. Finally, the respective results were reported in a soil mapping with overlapping layers.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Alimonti & Mara Lombardi & Monica Cardarilli & Elena Soldo, 2017. "Reliability Analysis Applied on Land Subsidence Effects of Groundwater Remediation: Probabilistic vs. Deterministic Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(6), pages 1745-1758, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1596-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1596-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aristotelis Mantoglou & George Kourakos, 2007. "Optimal Groundwater Remediation Under Uncertainty Using Multi-objective Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 835-847, May.
    2. Claudio Alimonti & Mara Lombardi, 2015. "Reliability Analysis for Preliminary Forecasts of Hydrogeological Unit Productivity," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3771-3785, August.
    3. Bijuan Huang & Longcang Shu & Y. Yang, 2012. "Groundwater Overexploitation Causing Land Subsidence: Hazard Risk Assessment Using Field Observation and Spatial Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(14), pages 4225-4239, November.
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